The Prepared Mind 11.5.2012

Hurricane Sandy’s assault on New York environs led to a shutdown of U.S. equity and bond markets on Monday and Tuesday.  It was the first time since 1888 the NYSE was closed down by weather for two consecutive days.  Uncertainty about this coming Tuesday’s U.S. presidential election  was apparent during last week’s shortened market.  Big gains on Thursday were followed by an equally large selloff on Friday.  This was despite encouraging manufacturing and jobs reports during the week.  The net result was ho-hum market performance for the week.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) was down 0.11% , losing 14.05 points to close at 13,093.16.  The entire loss for the week, and more, took place on Friday following a 1.0% decline.  The S&P 500 closed at 1,414.20  –  up 2.26 points or a gain of 0.16%.   The NASDAQ 100 (NDX) closed at 2,656.28, a loss of 9.55 points or – 0.36%.  The Russell 2000 (RUT)  closed at 811.60  – a loss of 1.76 points or down 0.22%.  The S&P 100 (OEX) gained 0.02% , or 0.10,  to close at 646.88. The VIX and other volatility indexes reflected static uncertainty about the markets.  The VIX closed last week at 17.59 – a loss of 1.18%.  Volatility measurements for the other indexes showed similar flat line behavior compared to the previous week.

Here is a capsule view of last week’s market numbers:

Index

Close

Weekly Change

% Weekly

% YTD

Volatility of  Index

Dow Jones Industrials (DJIA)

13,093.16

-14.05

-0.11%

7.17%

16.34% (VXD)

S&P 500 (SPX)

1,414.20

2.26

0.16%

12.45%

17.59% (VIX)

NASDAQ 100 (NDX)

2,656.28

-9.55

-0.36%

16.61%

19.94% (VXN)

Russell 2000 (RUT)

811.60

-1.76

-0.22%

9.54%

20.83% (RVX)

S&P 100 (OEX)

646.88

0.10

0.02%

13.33%

17.87%(VXO)

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX)

17.59

-0.21

-1.18%

NA

The focus for the week will be the elections on Tuesday.  This has been a season where polls have been widely divergent.  Bipartisanship from both sides of the aisle would be a welcome breath of fresh air for the political environment.  The election results will overshadow everything else this week.  The economic reports will highlight housing, jobs and trade.  None of these reports will deflect momentum relating to the election results.

The quarterly earnings announcements will ease this week  With impetus and assistance from good friend ,Walter Catching, I have changed my method for reporting earnings announcements.  Previous blogs reported the date of the announcement and whether the announcement was before the opening or after the close of the market.  I have expanded the information to include the previous week’s closing price for each individual equity, the current 30 day implied volatility for the options, and the average daily option volume.  I have sorted the pending announcements to include optionable stocks trading above $20 with an implied volatility greater than 20 and average daily volume exceeding 200 contracts.   This information provides crucial first pass information – liquidity and relative price – for those trading earning announcements.  Future blogs with provide consensus earnings estimates for each stock.

Be ready for the impact of the elections upon the markets.  Trade with a plan.  Be wary.  Don’t panic.

 

Remember:

  “Chance favors the Prepared Mind.” – Louis Pasteur

This week’s economic news (All times are Eastern Daylight Time.) Dates and times are subject to change:

Monday November 5:

Economic:   October ISM Non-Manufacturing Index – 10:00.

Other:  Greek Parliament votes on austerity package.

Earnings:

 

Symbol

CompanyName

B/A 11/2 close IV30 Avg dly opt vol
ANV Allied Nevada Gold Corp. B

35.64

42.79

288

CHD Church & Dwight Co. Inc. B

51.23

21.33

212

CYOU Changyou.com Limited B

25.37

61.50

1182

HBC HSBC Holdings Plc B

50.35

22.59

1485

HNT Health Net Inc. B

22.75

64.62

3070

HUM Humana Inc. B

75.94

41.19

7986

ICE InterContinental Exchange Inc. B

131.24

24.10

713

PCYC Pharmacyclics, Inc. B

61.46

71.91

5771

RDEN Elizabeth Arden Inc. B

47.67

43.65

340

RIG Transocean Inc. B

46.11

33.49

9646

ROK Rockwell Automation Inc. B

74.87

34.00

975

SLW Silver Wheaton Corp. B

41.14

40.31

26977

SOHU Sohu.com Inc. B

39.98

54.21

10486

SYY Sysco Corp. B

31.57

20.25

7450

TRLG True Religion Apparel Inc. B

26.09

61.37

2675

TWC Time Warner Cable Inc. B

98.74

23.67

7182

TSLA Tesla Motors, Inc. A

29.25

63.51

10116

BSFT BroadSoft, Inc. A

38.96

88.60

1492

CF CF Industries Holdings Inc. A

210.88

34.11

17376

CTRP Ctrip.com International Ltd. A

20.29

56.77

3687

EOG EOG Resources Inc. A

116.88

35.47

18711

ESRX Express Scripts Inc. A

62.50

30.58

10009

FNF Fidelity National Financial Inc. A

21.86

29.83

463

GWR Genesee & Wyoming Inc. A

73.10

32.41

219

MED Medifast Inc. A

26.18

51.38

734

MYGN Myriad Genetics Inc. A

26.86

40.22

1661

SBAC SBA Communications Corp. A

66.62

20.23

259

SNCR Synchronoss Technologies Inc. A

20.75

72.33

336

UAN CVR Partners LP A

27.64

32.86

12268

WLT Walter Industries Inc. A

38.11

60.98

8899

WTW Weight Watcher’s International Inc. A

49.98

61.66

2844

XL XL Capital Ltd. A

24.67

33.61

1171

Z Zillow Inc. A

37.23

68.69

1658

 

Tuesday November 6:

Economic:  ISCS-Goldman Sachs Retail Sales – 7:45, Redbook – 8:55

Other:  U.S. Presidential Election, Greek General Strike.

Earnings:

Symbol

CompanyName

B/A 11/2 close

IV30

Avg dly opt vol
AOL AOL Inc. B

35.63

44.86

6342

CDE Coeur d’Alene Mines Corp. B

31.86

45.29

4384

CRZO Carrizo Oil & Gas Inc. B

26.92

50.02

1378

CSC Computer Sciences Corp. B

31.13

43.55

2099

DISH EchoStar Communications Corp. B

36.00

44.59

1805

DTV DirecTV Group Inc. B

51.26

25.13

3174

EMR Emerson Electric Co. B

50.38

24.37

9638

EXPD Expeditors International of Washington I B

37.22

33.43

507

FOSL Fossil Inc. B

93.88

73.16

2926

FUN Cedar Fair LP B

36.01

28.44

326

INFI Infinity Pharmaceuticals Inc. B

21.87

77.71

2417

LINTA Liberty Media Interactive B

20.55

28.92

1818

NSM Nationstar Mortgage Holdings Inc. B

34.21

60.29

5196

NYX NYSE Euronext Inc. B

25.12

24.37

3712

ACMP Access Midstream Partners, L.P. A

35.92

24.08

18304

EXXI ENERGY XXI LTD A

34.31

42.80

268

GGC Georgia Gulf Corp. A

36.89

41.52

529

LUK Leucadia National Corp. A

22.97

32.75

385

NWSA News Corporation A

24.26

29.40

16710

PKT Procera Networks Inc. A

22.77

68.07

2084

RAX Rackspace Hosting Inc A

65.89

46.39

6616

SGY Stone Energy Corp. A

23.91

52.42

412

TX Ternium S.A. A

21.21

47.31

216

VOLC Volcano Corporation A

29.02

39.79

201

 

Wednesday November 7:

Economic:  MBA Purchase Applications – 7:00, EIA Petroleum Status Report – 10:30, September Consumer Credit – 3:00.

Other;  EU Commission economic forecast for EU and Euro-zone.

Earnings: 

Symbol

CompanyName

B/A 11/2 close

IV30

Avg dly opt vol
AGU Agrium Inc. B

107.30

25.50

1660

ARIA Ariad Pharmaceuticals Inc. B

22.06

45.57

1022

AUXL Auxilium Pharmaceuticals Inc. B

20.08

60.75

209

CTSH Cognizant Technology Solutions Corp. B

67.21

36.79

804

DVN Devon Energy Corp. B

58.52

27.94

5364

GOLD Randgold Resources Ltd. B

119.52

34.60

1228

GVA Granite Construction Inc. B

30.60

45.11

300

HFC HollyFrontier Corporation. B

38.54

39.82

4430

LAMR Lamar Advertising Co. B

39.67

41.00

373

M Macy’s Inc. B

40.52

31.66

7613

SODA SodaStream International Ltd. B

36.50

73.90

2971

TAP Molson Coors Brewing Company B

43.20

24.49

404

THC Tenet Healthcare Corp. B

25.40

52.11

2772

TWX Time Warner Inc. B

43.80

21.78

2150

WLP WellPoint Inc. B

61.73

38.71

8157

CBS CBS Corporation A

33.45

32.49

4980

CLR Continental Resources Inc. A

72.56

42.26

885

CNQR Concur Technologies Inc. A

66.40

43.35

1173

CXO Concho Resources Inc. A

88.07

40.32

337

CXW Corrections Corp. of America A

35.17

38.19

3855

DK Delek US Holdings Inc. A

25.54

47.29

264

ETP Energy Transfer Partners L.P. A

42.96

21.50

6157

MNST Monster Beverage Company A

44.99

70.26

4910

OAS Oasis Petroleum Inc. A

30.90

46.04

236

PAAS Pan American Silver Corp. A

22.62

41.30

3231

PANL Universal Display Corp. A

33.40

74.57

1217

PRU Prudential Financial Inc. A

57.69

29.40

3255

QCOM QUALCOMM Inc. A

59.73

32.53

35347

SRPT Sarepta Therapeutics Inc A

23.27

99.16

2420

WFM Whole Foods Market Inc. A

94.46

43.14

10651

 

Thursday November 8:

Economic:  September International Trade – 8:30, Jobless Claims – 8:30, Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index – 9:45, ISM Manufacturing Index – 10:00, Construction Spending – 10:00, EIA Natural Gas Status Report – 10:30.

Other:  ECB and Bank of England interest rate announcement.

Earnings: 

Symbol

CompanyName

B/A 11/2 close

IV30

Avg dly opt vol
AAP Advance Auto Parts Inc. B

77.20

31.82

2553

AG First Majestic Silver Corp. B

23.69

44.30

1445

AU AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. B

33.58

34.48

907

CNQ Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. B

30.39

33.17

1669

EZCH LanOptics Ltd. B

33.05

60.39

1019

HII Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. B

43.49

34.22

841

KSS Kohl’s Corp. B

54.99

26.16

2915

NTI Northern Tier Energy LP B

21.97

41.32

420

SI Siemens AG B

102.01

22.49

391

SMG The Scotts Miracle-Gro Co. B

43.51

36.54

398

TK Teekay Corporation B

31.06

34.47

237

VMC Vulcan Materials Co. B

47.47

45.00

297

AFFY Affymax Inc. A

23.52

68.70

274

DIS Walt Disney Co. A

49.78

24.29

24455

DLB Dolby Laboratories Inc. A

33.17

48.86

3358

EVEP EV Energy Partners LP A

65.89

43.26

4489

JWN Nordstrom Inc. A

57.19

28.62

3905

MCHP Microchip Technology Inc. A

32.50

23.46

474

MDVN Medivation Inc. A

51.15

58.65

2387

SPRD Spreadtrum Communications Inc. A

22.87

68.98

632

VHC VirnetX Holding Corporation A

29.40

182.68

16197

WPRT Westport Innovations Inc. (USA) A

27.75

62.05

5694

 

 

Friday November 9:

Economic:   October Import and Export Prices – 8:30, University of Michigan/Reuters Consumer Sentiment – 8:55, September Wholesale Trade -10:00, ECRI Weekly Leading Index – 10:30.

Other:  China releases economic indicators – inflation, retail sales and production, OPEC releases monthly oil production report.

Earnings:  

Symbol

CompanyName

B/A 11/2 close

IV30

Avg dly opt vol
DDS Dillard’s Inc. B

80.11

39.38

1132

ENR Energizer Holdings Inc. B

74.75

37.88

429

FWLT Foster Wheeler Ltd. B

22.91

41.43

663

JCP J. C. Penney Company Inc B

24.26

68.76

32488

 

 

Monday November 12:

Veteran’s Day Observed – U.S. Markets Closed

Earnings:

Symbol

CompanyName

B/A 11/2 close IV30 Avg dly opt vol
DHI DR Horton Inc. B

21.84

40.34

5207

HOLX Hologic Inc. A

21.06

43.58

263

JEC Jacobs Engineering Group Inc. A

39.48

30.85

371

Frank Fahey is a mentor with DiscoverOptions, the educational arm of OptionVue Systems.  Inquiries should call 847-816-6610 or email info@DiscoverOptions.com.

 

 

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