The Prepared Mind 2.11.2013

The opinions and views I express in this blog are merely guidelines which can be accepted or ignored.  The guidance I am giving now is not to be ignored.  I am giving all my readers plenty of advance warning.  Thursday is Valentine’s Day.  The same skill set which serves us so well in trading is applicable to Valentine’s Day.  Have a plan and do not wait until the last moment to execute it.

None of the reported corporate earnings or economic/political news were enough to move the market last week.  Linkedin responded with an over 20% upside gain after positive earnings. On Thursday, Apple stock gapped upward in response to a growing crescendo of calls to distribute their cash holdings to stockholders. An overview of activity for the week showed minor gyrations resulting in the major indexes showing minimal gains.  This was the sixth straight week of market gains.

Last week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) again finished near highs, losing 16.82 points, or 0.12%, closing under 14,000 at 13,992.97.  The S&P 500(SPX) closed at 1,517.93, up 4.76 points or a gain of 0.31%.  The S&P 100 (OEX) gained 0.19%, or 1.30 points, to close 681.74.  The NDX avoided continued pummeling by Apple (AAPL) by closing at 2,775.56, a gain of 11.60 points or plus 0.42%.  The RUT closed at 913.99, a gain of 4.44 points or 0.48%. Friday showed gains for the second straight week.  Friday’s gains erased gains in the VIX and other volatility indexes. The VIX again closed the week near 5 year lows.   The VIX closed last week at 13.02, an increase of 0.12 points or a weekly gain of 0.12%.  The week’s trading activity showed a tussle between bulls and bears – further gains versus a pullback.  Here is a capsule view of last week’s market numbers:

Index

Close

Weekly Change

% Weekly

% YTD

Volatility of  Index

Dow Jones Industrials (DJIA)

13,992.97

-16.82

-0.12%

6.78%

12.66% (VXD)

S&P 500 (SPX)

1,517.93

4.76

0.31%

6.43%

13.02% (VIX)

NASDAQ 100 (NDX)

2,775.56

11.60

0.42%

4.31%

14.14% (VXN)

Russell 2000 (RUT)

913.99

4.44

0.49%

7.35%

15.90% (RVX)

S&P 100 (OEX)

683.04

1.30

0.19%

5.63%

12.44%(VXO)

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX)

13.02

0.12

0.93%

NA

The State of the Union Address on Tuesday will provide a blueprint of where the near term political battles will be fought. Earnings will continue to have an impact on the market.  The earnings reports and associated conference calls will continue to show an inability to move the markets.  Economic reports will focus on housing, retail sales, and manufacturing.  The focus will be on the report on Retail Sales on Wednesday morning. Many analysts look to this report as a measurement of the economy’s strength.  Companies making earnings announcements are highlighted by Dun & Bradstreet, Fossil, Coca-Cola, Omnicom, Deere, NetApp, Cisco, Lorillard, MetLife, Apache, Alexion, Agilent Technologies, and PepsiCo. .    I have scanned stocks with upcoming earnings using the following criteria:  Price > 20, 30 Day Implied Volatility > 20, and Average Daily Option Volume > 200 contracts.  Continue to be wary of trading any products where there is not adequate liquidity and narrow enough markets.  You should be aware of daily volume and open interest in any products you trade.   I am including a consensus earnings estimate for each stock.  Stick with your plan.    Remain disciplined.  Remain on top of market news and movers.  Do not chase profits and disregard risk.

Remember:

  “Chance favors the Prepared Mind.” – Louis Pasteur

This week’s economic news (All times are Eastern Daylight Time.) Events, dates and times are subject to change:

Monday February 11:

Economic:  None

Other:  Eurozone finance minister meet.  Chinese markets closed through Thursday. 

Optionable Earnings:

Symbol

Company Name

FEB 1 close

IV30

XEPS

B/A

ALEX Alexander & Baldwin, Inc.

$33.60

25.1

$0.14

A
DNB Dun & Bradstreet Corp.

$81.54

31.6

$2.41

A
VECO Veeco Instruments Inc.

$31.45

46.1

$0.02

A

 

Tuesday February 12:

Economic:  NFIB Small Business Optimism Index – 7:30, ICSC-Goldman Sachs Store Sales – 7:45, Redbook – 8:55.

Other:  President Barack Obama delivers the annual State of the Union address – 9 p.m. UK CPI, Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Esther George speech on the economy to University of Nebraska-Omaha – 11;30, Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Plosser speech on economic outlook and monetary policy to the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research’s (SIEPR) Associates Meeting -7:30.

Optionable Earnings:

Symbol

Company Name

FEB 8 close

IV30

XEPS

B/A

DBD Diebold Inc.

$29.76

25.5

$0.49

B
FOSL Fossil Inc.

$105.78

55.8

$2.27

B
LVLT Level 3 Communications Inc.

$24.50

45.3

($0.18)

B
KORS Michael Kors Holdings Limited

$56.66

58.7

$0.40

B
RHP Ryman Hospitality Properties, Inc.

$42.60

36.7

$0.16

B
MHP The McGraw-Hill Companies Inc.

$43.81

45.9

$0.72

B
UTHR United Therapeutics Corp.

$53.61

31.1

$1.26

B
AXLL Axiall Corporation

$55.00

39.6

$0.61

A
NILE Blue Nile Inc.

$31.52

62.0

$0.47

A
BWLD Buffalo Wild Wings Inc.

$77.60

42.7

$0.95

A
FTI FMC Technologies Inc.

$48.01

29.1

$0.57

A
NTGR Netgear Inc.

$37.48

39.2

$0.51

A
RAX Rackspace Hosting Inc

$73.11

48.7

$0.22

A
RKUS Ruckus Wireless, Inc

$21.43

62.3

$0.05

A
SGEN Seattle Genetics Inc.

$29.81

45.0

($0.13)

A

 

Wednesday February 13:

Economic:  MBA Purchase Applications – 7:00, Retail Sales – 8:30. Import and Export Prices – 8:30, Business Inventories – 10:00, EIA Petroleum Status Report – 10:30.

Other:  St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard speech on the economy and monetary policy to the Arkansas State University’s Agribusiness Conference, Jonesboro, Arkansas – 11:10.

Optionable Earnings:

Symbol

Company Name

FEB 8 close

IV30

XEPS

B/A

ALR Alere

$22.39

41.4

$0.49

B
AAWW Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings Inc.

$44.32

39.5

$1.72

B
CLMT Calumet Specialty Products Partners LP

$33.27

24.0

$0.63

B
CMCSA Comcast Corp.

$38.62

23.9

$0.53

B
CMCSK Comcast Corporation

$37.25

23.2

$0.55

B
DE Deere & Co.

$92.17

20.4

$1.41

B
EZCH Ezchp Semiconductor

$31.37

50.3

$0.13

B
LO Lorillard Inc

$40.06

27.2

$0.76

B
WCG WellCare Health Plans Inc.

$53.28

42.4

$1.32

B
AEM Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd.

$45.66

34.1

$0.46

A
CAR Avis Budget Group Inc.

$22.84

35.7

($0.08)

A
CJES C&J Energy Services, Inc.

$23.31

32.5

$0.66

A
CSCO Cisco Systems Inc.

$21.10

26.5

$0.43

A
CLF Cliffs Natural Resources Inc.

$36.24

42.0

$0.55

A
CXW Corrections Corp. of America

$39.03

28.6

$0.41

A
EOG EOG Resources Inc.

$129.77

31.5

$1.37

A
EQIX Equinix Inc.

$214.08

51.7

$0.62

A
LBTYA Liberty Global Inc.

$68.07

24.9

$0.15

A
MET MetLife Inc.

$36.94

27.0

$1.18

A
NTAP Network Appliance Inc.

$35.57

43.0

$0.56

A
OII Oceaneering International Inc.

$63.58

25.5

$0.72

A
PXD Pioneer Natural Resources Co.

$124.54

37.0

$0.86

A
TAL TAL International Group Inc.

$43.01

30.8

$0.95

A
TSLA Tesla Motors, Inc.

$39.48

55.0

($0.64)

A
TRIP TripAdvisor, Inc.

$46.85

51.8

$0.23

A
VCLK ValueClick Inc.

$20.65

32.5

$0.47

A
WTW Weight Watcher’s International Inc.

$54.42

57.1

$0.88

A
WFM Whole Foods Market Inc.

$94.17

29.8

$0.77

A
Z Zillow Inc.

$36.71

75.0

($0.06)

A

 

Thursday February 14:

Economic:  Jobless Claims – 8:30, Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index – 9:45,  EIA Natural Gas Report – 10:30.

Other:  Eurozone  GDP, St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard speech on the economy and monetary policy to Mississippi State University – 12:50.

Optionable Earnings:

Symbol

Company Name

FEB 8 close

IV30

XEPS

B/A

ABX Barrick Gold Corp.

$32.73

25.2

$1.14

B
AFSI Amtrust Financial Services Inc

$34.63

32.9

$0.69

B
ALXN Alexion Pharmaceuticals Inc.

$92.67

39.3

$0.47

B
APA Apache Corp.

$83.74

25.2

$2.28

B
CAB Cabela’s Inc.

$50.05

45.0

$1.20

B
CBS CBS Corporation

$42.45

28.2

$0.72

B
DISCA Discovery Holding Co.

$70.62

24.1

$0.77

B
DTV DirecTV Group Inc.

$52.59

24.1

$1.15

B
DVA DaVita Healthcare Partners Inc.

$118.93

20.1

$1.57

B
GEL Genesis Energy LP

$41.99

22.0

$0.35

B
GM General Motors Corp.

$28.47

29.3

$0.50

B
GNC GNC Holdings Inc.

$35.94

46.5

$0.46

B
GNRC Generac Holdlings Inc.

$39.74

47.1

$0.69

B
HTWR HeartWare International, Inc

$90.53

28.7

($1.63)

B
JAH Jarden Corp.

$60.27

27.4

$1.25

B
LUFK Lufkin Industries Inc.

$60.09

41.8

$0.84

B
NXY Nexen Inc

$26.66

25.8

$0.64

B
PCYC Pharmacyclics, Inc.

$69.28

47.8

$0.24

B
REGN Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc.

$163.99

39.1

$1.07

B
SHPG Shire plc

$100.06

26.5

$1.58

B
STRA Strayer Education Inc.

$61.31

48.6

$1.44

B
TAP Molson Coors Brewing Company

$44.31

23.7

$0.64

B
A Agilent Technologies Inc.

$45.01

25.2

$0.66

A
GG Goldcorp Inc.

$36.13

30.0

$0.55

A
QLIK Qlik Technologies Inc.

$21.99

75.0

$0.19

A

 

Friday February 15:

Economic:  Empire State Manufacturing Survey – 8:30, Treasury International Capital – 9:00, Industrial Production – 9:15, University of Michigan/Reuter’s Consumer Sentiment – 9:55, E-Commerce Retail Sales – 10:00.

Other: Options Expiration

Optionable Earnings:

Symbol

Company Name

FEB 8 close

IV30

XEPS

B/A

BAM Brookfield Asset Management Inc.

$37.94

30.1

$0.30

B
DLR Digital Realty Trust Inc.

$65.15

24.2

$1.16

B
IPGP IPG Photonics Corporation

$66.99

45.6

$0.72

B
TRW TRW Automotive Holdings Corp.

$58.30

27.8

$1.35

B
VFC VF Corp.

$153.89

26.7

$3.03

B
WMC Western Asset Mortgage Capital Corporation

$21.34

29.3

$0.84

A

 

Monday February 18:

Economic:  US Holiday – President’s Day – All U.S. Markets closed.

Optionable Earnings:

Symbol

Company Name

FEB 8 close

IV30

XEPS

B/A

APL Atlas Pipeline Partners LP

$32.61

20.5

$0.19

A
ESRX Express Scripts Inc.

$55.01

29.2

$1.05

A

Tuesday February 19:

Economic:  Housing Market Index – 10:00

Optionable Earnings:

 

 

 

 

 

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