The Prepared Mind 2.19.2013

“Chance favors the prepared mind.” — Louis Pasteur

This year’s continuing stock rally showed broad market gains for the seventh consecutive week.  The week started with the fifth straight Monday with equity market losses.  The equity markets look tired despite the “gains.”  The indexes finished closed to unchanged, while closing near all-time highs.  Gold traded below $1,500 for the first time since last August.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) finished within 183 points of its all-time high, losing 11.21 points, or 0.08%, closing under 14,000 at 13,981.76.  The S&P 500 (SPX) closed at 1,519.79, up 1.86 points or a gain of 0.12%.  The S&P 100 (OEX) gained 0.14%, or 0.93 points, to close 683.97.  The NDX closed at 2,764.87, a loss of 10.69 points or – 0.39%.  The Russell 2000 (RUT) closed at 922.44, a gain of 8.45 points or 0.92%.. The VIX closed the week at 5 year lows.   The VIX closed last week at 12.46, and decrease of 0.56 points or a weekly loss of 4.30%.  The week’s trading activity was a draw between the bulls and the bears – further gains versus a correction.  Here is a capsule view of last week’s market numbers:

Index Close Weekly Change % Weekly % YTD Volatility of  Index
Dow Jones Industrials (DJIA)

13,981.76

-11.21

-0.08%

6.70%

11.56% (VXD)
S&P 500 (SPX)

1,519.79

1.86

0.12%

6.56%

12.46% (VIX)
NASDAQ 100 (NDX)

2,764.87

-10.69

-0.39%

3.91%

13.47% (VXN)
Russell 2000 (RUT)

922.44

8.45

0.92%

8.34%

15.32% (RVX)
S&P 100 (OEX)

683.97

0.93

0.14%

5.78%

11.91% (VXO)
CBOE Volatility Index (VIX)

12.46

-0.56

-4.30%

NA

The impending sequestration is starting to be the focus of debate.  It is one of the few issues where there is bipartisan agreement.  Neither the Democrats nor Republicans like it.  The financial markets have been remarkably calm about the impending March 1 cut-off.  Bearish pundits have described the situation as being a gap between market pricing and reality. The bullish side provides equally compelling arguments for their conclusions.  Be aware of the different headwinds which may buffet the markets.  Economic reports will focus on housing, the FOMC minutes, consumer prices, and manufacturing.  The focus will be on Thursday morning.  Announcements will be made concerning jobless claims, leading indicators, home sales, and manufacturing activity.  See the calendar below for the times of these announcements.

Earnings will continue to have an impact on the market.  All eyes will be on Tuesday’s post-market announcement of earnings by Herbalife (HLF.)  These earnings will provide the next chapter in the battle of longs and shorts – Carl Icahn vs. William Ackman.  The earnings reports and associated conference calls will continue to show an inability to move the markets.  Companies making earnings announcements are highlighted by Express Scripts, Monster Beverage, CF Industries, Medtronic, Fluor, Wal-Mart, Hewlett-Packard, Public Storage, and Nordstrom.      I have scanned stocks with upcoming earnings using the following criteria:  Price > 20, 30 Day Implied Volatility > 20, and Average Daily Option Volume > 200 contracts.  Continue to be wary of trading any products where there is not adequate liquidity and narrow enough markets.  You should be aware of daily volume and open interest in any products you trade.   I am including a consensus earnings estimate for each stock.  Stick with your plan.    Remain disciplined.  Remain on top of market news and movers.  Do not chase profits and disregard risk.

Remember:

  “Chance favors the Prepared Mind.” – Louis Pasteur

This week’s economic news (All times are Eastern Daylight Time.) Events, dates and times are subject to change:

Monday February 18:

Economic:  US Holiday – President’s Day – All U.S. Markets closed.

Optionable Earnings:

Symbol

Company Name

FEB 15 close

IV30

XEPS

B/A

APL Atlas Pipeline Partners LP

$33.71

20.4

$1.05

A

ESRX Express Scripts Inc.

$55.10

34.4

$0.19

A

 

Tuesday February 19:

Economic:  Housing Market Index – 10:00

Optionable Earnings:

Symbol

Company Name

FEB 15 close

IV30

XEPS

B/A

ABG Asbury Automotive Group Inc.

$36.24

35.7

$0.65

B

ACT Actavis, Inc.

$86.49

22.1

$1.53

B

AWI Armstrong World Industries Inc.

$56.72

33.5

$0.32

B

CF CF Industries Holdings Inc.

$217.86

29.1

$7.03

A

FNF Fidelity National Financial Inc.

$26.14

25.7

$0.56

A

HLF Herbalife Ltd.

$38.27

75.9

$1.04

A

LOPE Grand Canyon Education Inc

$24.67

51.2

$0.42

A

MAR Marriott International Inc.

$41.16

21.4

$0.55

A

MDT Medtronic Inc.

$47.17

28.5

$0.91

B

NFX Newfield Exploration Co.

$28.11

38.3

$0.43

A

OCR Omnicare Inc.

$39.74

44.8

$0.85

B

OIS Oil States International Inc.

$80.95

31.2

$1.89

A

ROC Rockwood Holdings Inc.

$58.00

34.4

$0.48

B

RRGB Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc.

$36.36

49.3

$0.44

B

TEX Terex Corp.

$35.00

48.8

$0.39

A

TREX Trex Co. Inc.

$44.49

41.9

($0.18)

B

WLK Westlake Chemical Corp.

$91.80

37.1

$1.25

B

WWW Wolverine World Wide Inc.

$42.68

34.4

$0.16

B

XEC Cimarex Energy Co.

$67.25

34.1

$1.08

B

YNDX Yandex N.V.

$25.66

45.3

$0.27

B

 

Wednesday February 20:

Economic:  MBA Purchase Applications – 7:00, Goldman Sachs-Retail Sales – 8:30. Housing Starts – 8:30, Producer Price Index – 8:30, Redbook – 8:55.

Other:  FOMC minutes – 2:00.

Optionable Earnings:

Symbol

Company Name

FEB 15 close

IV30

XEPS

B/A

AFAM Almost Family Inc.

$20.75

30.4

$0.43

B

AU AngloGold Ashanti Ltd.

$28.37

35.3

$0.86

D

AWAY HomeAway Inc.

$25.33

40.8

$0.07

A

CAKE Cheesecake Factory Inc.

$33.20

26.9

$0.52

A

CLH Clean Harbors Inc

$51.59

43.3

$0.41

B

CXO Concho Resources Inc.

$96.45

30.9

$1.02

A

DISH EchoStar Communications Corp.

$36.84

41.8

$0.12

B

DVN Devon Energy Corp.

$60.66

31.7

$0.77

B

EV Eaton Vance Corp.

$40.46

21.5

$0.51

B

FLR Fluor Corporation

$64.57

30.1

$0.68

A

GRMN Garmin Ltd.

$38.97

37.7

$0.75

B

HLX Helix Energy Solutions Group Inc.

$25.37

33.7

$0.34

A

IDCC InterDigital Inc.

$44.35

38.2

$0.02

A

JACK Jack in the Box Inc

$29.75

25.7

$0.39

A

KBR KBR Inc.

$31.56

28.6

$0.09

A

LL Lumber Liquidators Inc

$63.96

40.8

$0.42

B

MDCO Medicines Co.

$30.43

56.4

$0.27

B

OC Owens Corning Sales Inc.

$42.79

34.4

$0.16

B

PPO Polypore International Inc.

$44.03

56.5

$0.46

A

QIHU Qihoo 360 Technology Co., Ltd.

$32.54

55.9

$0.04

A

RGP Regency Energy Partners LP

$24.68

28.4

$0.05

A

SAM Boston Beer Co. Inc.

$146.16

33.3

$1.23

A

SM SM Energy Company

$59.03

42.4

$0.23

A

SNPS Synopsys Inc.

$34.33

29.1

$0.28

A

SODA SodaStream International Ltd.

$51.49

71.3

$0.38

B

TOL Toll Brothers Inc.

$37.50

30.3

$0.11

B

TRN Trinity Industries Inc.

$42.02

28.7

$0.84

A

TSLA Tesla Motors, Inc.

$38.30

58.7

($0.64)

A

VNTV Vantiv, Inc.

$20.87

37.7

$0.31

B

WLT Walter Industries Inc.

$39.45

54.2

($0.84)

A

WMB Williams Companies Inc.

$35.46

26.2

$0.26

A

WPZ Williams Partners L.P.

$53.45

24.7

$0.52

A

XRAY DENTSPLY International Inc.

$42.91

22.8

$0.55

B

 

 

Thursday February 21:

Economic:  Consumer Price Index – 8:30, Jobless Claims – 8:30, PMI Manufacturing Index Flash – 8:68, Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index – 9:45,  Existing Home Sales  – 10;00, Leading Indicators – 10:00, Philadelphia Fed Survey – 10:00, EIA Natural Gas Report – 10:30EIA Petroleum Status Report – 11:00

Other:  St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard speech on economic and monetary policy outlook to the NYU Stern Business School – 12:30, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams speaks on monetary policy to the New York Forecasters Club – 1:00, Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Richard Fisher speaks on the Texas economy in Dallas – 9:15.

Optionable Earnings:

Symbol

Company Name

FEB 15 close

IV30

XEPS

B/A

ACTG Acacia Research Corp. – Acacia Technolog

$29.24

50.9

$0.18

A

AIG American International Group Inc.

$39.21

26.9

($0.09)

A

ARUN Aruba Networks Inc.

$22.42

72.2

$0.06

A

ATLS Atlas Energy, Inc.

$38.20

27.0

$0.05

A

BMRN BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc.

$54.97

35.2

($27.00)

A

CDE Coeur d’Alene Mines Corp.

$21.59

43.5

$0.33

B

CG The Carlyle Group L.P.

$33.71

26.9

$0.70

B

CHK Chesapeake Energy Corp.

$20.40

39.0

$0.14

B

COG Cabot Oil & Gas Corp.

$54.96

31.8

$0.21

A

DDS Dillard’s Inc.

$88.23

39.3

$2.90

B

DORM Dorman Products Inc.

$37.63

37.1

$0.50

B

ESV Ensco International Inc.

$65.32

24.5

$1.28

B

EXH Exterran Holdings Inc.

$24.71

34.7

$0.02

B

FIRE Sourcefire Inc.

$43.94

64.1

$0.29

A

FLS Flowserve Corp.

$159.97

24.3

$2.82

A

GDI Gardner Denver Inc.

$69.25

42.7

$1.36

A

GEO Geo Group Inc.

$33.23

32.0

$0.41

B

GLNG Golar LNG Ltd.

$40.48

24.3

$0.43

B

HEP Holly Energy Partners L.P

$39.29

24.0

$0.38

B

HTWR HeartWare International, Inc

$87.42

30.0

($1.63)

B

IMAX IMAX Corporation

$25.62

34.2

$0.12

B

INTU Intuit Inc.

$60.76

23.1

$0.28

A

JWN Nordstrom Inc.

$55.25

24.2

$1.34

A

LINE Linn Energy LLC

$37.33

32.5

$0.39

B

LNCO LinnCo, LLC

$37.50

30.4

$0.43

B

LTM Life Time Fitness Inc.

$43.11

34.7

$0.57

B

MELI Mercadolibre Inc.

$83.62

46.6

$0.61

A

MHK Mohawk Industries Inc.

$107.05

27.8

$0.94

A

MNST Monster Beverage Company

$47.69

58.7

$0.41

A

NEM Newmont Mining Corp.

$44.55

29.5

$1.00

A

ONXX Onyx Pharmaceuticals Inc.

$75.01

40.6

($0.84)

A

PWR Quanta Services Inc.

$29.11

33.3

$0.36

B

RS Reliance Steel & Aluminum Co.

$72.00

29.5

$0.97

B

SBAC SBA Communications Corp.

$68.11

20.7

($0.14)

A

SWN Southwestern Energy Co.

$33.31

34.0

$0.43

A

SWY Safeway Inc.

$20.87

50.0

$0.76

B

TS Tenaris SA

$40.70

25.0

$0.73

A

 

 

Friday February 22:

Economic:  None scheduled

Other: Federal Reserve Gov. Jerome Powell and Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren among speakers at University of Chicago Booth School’s Monetary Policy Forum in New York.

Optionable Earnings:

Symbol

Company Name

FEB 15 close

IV30

XEPS

B/A

AGU Agrium Inc.

$111.14

25.3

$2.02

B

ANF Abercrombie & Fitch Co.

$51.29

58.9

$1.93

B

CYBX Cyberonics Inc.

$45.57

48.3

$0.39

B

LNG Cheniere Energy Inc.

$21.82

38.9

($0.41)

B

LUK Leucadia National Corp.

$27.57

25.4

$0.59

A

Monday February 25:

Economic:  Chicago Fed National Activity Index – 8:30, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey – 10:30.

Optionable Earnings:

Symbol

Company Name

FEB 15 close

IV30

XEPS

B/A

ADSK Autodesk Inc.

$38.67

37.0

$0.38

A

ANV Allied Nevada Gold Corp.

$23.47

41.8

$0.33

B

ARIA Ariad Pharmaceuticals Inc.

$20.06

43.1

($0.36)

B

BGC General Cable Corp.

$34.87

34.0

$0.37

B

DDD 3D Systems Corp.

$62.75

82.4

$0.37

B

DRQ Dril-Quip Inc.

$84.82

23.6

$0.74

B

IPXL IMPAX LABS INC

$20.23

37.1

$0.20

B

LOW Lowes Companies Inc.

$39.57

33.4

$0.23

B

OAS Oasis Petroleum Inc.

$38.96

44.5

$0.45

B

RIG Transocean Inc.

$59.30

30.2

$0.81

B

ROSE Rosetta Resources Inc.

$50.70

36.4

$0.93

D

SGY Stone Energy Corp.

$22.42

43.5

$0.55

A

SLRC Solar Capital Ltd.

$25.43

21.3

$0.59

A

TWI Titan International Inc.

$26.39

37.0

$0.47

A

VECO Veeco Instruments Inc.

$30.35

44.9

$0.10

A

 

 

 

 

 

 

Comments are closed