The Prepared Mind 2.25.2013

“Chance favors the prepared mind.” — Louis Pasteur

The market finally ended seven straight weeks of market gains.    The major indexes hit 5-year highs on Tuesday only toe sell-ff in response to the minute of the last meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee.    The fear of the end of the Fed’s monetary easing to a 2% midweek loss in the equities.  Some commodity prices showed an even greater loss. The week ended with gains erasing the bulk of the week’s earlier losses.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA finished above 14,000 gaining 18.81 points or 0.13%,    The S&P 500 (SPX) closed at 1,515.60, down 4.19  points or a loss of 0.28%.  The S&P 100 (OEX) lost 0.05%, or 0.35 points, to close 683.62.  The NDX closed at 2,737.28, a loss of 27.59 points or – 1.00%.  The Russell 2000 (RUT) closed at 914.83, a loss of 7.61 points or 0.82%.. The VIX bounced off 5 year.  This behavior seems to belie the contention by some market mavens that Wednesday and Thursday were the market correction.     The VIX closed last week at 14.17, an increase of 1.71 points or a weekly gain of 13.72%.  The other volatility measurements showed similar gains.  Here is a capsule view of last week’s market numbers:

Index Close Weekly Change % Weekly % YTD Volatility of  Index
Dow Jones Industrials (DJIA)

14,000.57

18.81

0.13%

6.84%

12.71% (VXD)
S&P 500 (SPX)

1,515.60

-4.19

-0.28%

6.27%

14.17% (VIX)
NASDAQ 100 (NDX)

2,737.28

-27.59

-1.00%

2.87%

15.68% (VXN)
Russell 2000 (RUT)

914.83

-7.61

-0.82%

7.45%

17.21% (RVX)
S&P 100 (OEX)

683.62

-0.35

-0.05%

5.72%

13.74%(VXO)
CBOE Volatility Index (VIX)

14.17

1.71

13.72%

NA

 

Sequestration is the word for the week.  The financial markets have been remarkably calm about the impending March 1 cut-off.   Will it or won’t it happen?  What will the effect be upon the economy?  Better yet, what will the impact be upon the markets?  Tune in this week and find out.  Sequestration is not the only thing impacting the market.  Rumblings are starting to be heard from the Eurozone.  The coming week is the monthly employment week.  Until recently the reports on the first Friday of the month were the focus of marker prognosticators.  Other economic reports will focus on housing, regional Fed manufacturing indexes, inflation and jobs.  The focus will be on Friday – the monthly jobs report and Sequestration.  See the calendar below for the times of these announcements.  Earnings will continue to have an impact on the market.

Constantly check and recheck dates for earnings announcements.  These dates change often.  I use multiple sources for the dates of earnings announcements.  It is not rare to receive to different “confirmed” dates for the same earnings announcement.  I will call investor relations at any company In which I have a position.  Companies making earnings announcements are highlighted by Autodesk, Macy’s, Autozone, Priceline.com, Home Depot, Target, Dollar Tree, Monster Beverage, Gap, Kohl’s and salesforce.com.  Earnings by the retail goods sector will be a barometer of the current recovery.  I have scanned stocks with upcoming earnings using the following criteria:  Price > 20, 30 Day Implied Volatility > 20, and Average Daily Option Volume > 200 contracts.  Continue to be wary of trading any products where there is not adequate liquidity and narrow enough markets.  You should be aware of daily volume and open interest in any products you trade.   I am including a consensus earnings estimate for each stock.  Stick with your plan.    Remain disciplined.  Remain on top of market news and movers.  Do not chase profits and disregard risk.

Remember:

  “Chance favors the Prepared Mind.” – Louis Pasteur

This week’s economic news (All times are Eastern Daylight Time.) Events, dates and times are subject to change:

Monday February 25:

Economic:  Chicago Fed National Activity Index – 8:30, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey – 10:30.

Other:  Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Dennis Lockhard speech on the economic outlook in Knoxville, TN – 7:00 PM.

Optionable Earnings:

Symbol

Company Name

FEB 22 close

IV30

B/A

XEPS

CTB Cooper Tire & Rubber Co.

$25.09

45.9

B

$0.89

ARIA Ariad Pharmaceuticals Inc.

$20.97

40.9

B

($0.36)

BGC General Cable Corp.

$33.29

38.3

B

$0.29

DCI Donaldson Company Inc.

$36.68

33.9

B

$0.38

DDD 3D Systems Corp.

$54.89

81.0

B

$0.20

FE Firstenergy Corp.

$39.90

21.0

B

$0.79

LOW Lowes Companies Inc.

$37.67

38.1

B

$0.23

MELI Mercadolibre Inc.

$84.22

53.9

B

$0.61

ADSK Autodesk Inc.

$37.97

39.5

A

$0.38

OAS Oasis Petroleum Inc.

$35.72

45.1

A

$0.46

 

Tuesday February 26:

Economic:  ICSC Goldman Sachs-Retail Sales – 8:30,  Redbook – 8:55, FHFA House Price Index – 9:00, S&P Case-Shiller –Home Price Index 9:00, New Home Sales – 10:00, Consumer Confidence – 10:00, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index – 10:00, State Street Investor Confidence Index – 10:00.

Other:  Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke semi-annual testimony before Senate Banking Committee in Washington – 10:00.

Optionable Earnings:

 

Symbol

Company Name

FEB 22 close

IV30

B/A

XEPS

AMT American Tower Corp.

$73.78

20.5

B

$0.41

AZO AutoZone Inc.

$377.56

23.2

B

$4.73

CIE Cobalt International Energy, Inc.

$23.78

47.1

B

($0.09)

CRZO Carrizo Oil & Gas Inc.

$20.46

46.3

B

$0.36

EXPD Expeditors International of Washington I

$40.75

36.8

B

$0.43

HD The Home Depot Inc

$64.38

23.8

B

$0.64

HFC HollyFrontier Corporation.

$54.50

35.1

B

$2.27

M Macy’s Inc.

$39.33

29.7

B

$1.97

RBA Ritchie Bros. Auctioneers Inc.

$22.59

36.7

B

$0.24

THC Tenet Healthcare Corp.

$38.99

37.1

B

$0.69

DGI DigitalGlobe Inc

$26.52

44.5

A

$0.26

FSLR First Solar Inc.

$34.41

73.5

A

$1.75

PCLN Priceline.com Inc.

$683.33

40.8

A

$6.17

QCOR Questcor Pharmaceuticals Inc

$31.08

75.0

A

$0.87

RRC Range Resources Corp.

$70.15

30.3

A

$0.14

SPN Superior Energy Services Inc.

$26.27

38.5

A

$0.48

 

Wednesday February 27:

 Economic:  MBA Purchase Applications – 7:00, Durable Good Orders – 8:30, Pending Home Sales Index – 10:00, EIA Petroleum Status Report – 10:30.

Other:  Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke semi-annual testimony before the House Financial Services Committee in Washington – 10:00

Optionable Earnings:

 

Symbol

Company Name

FEB 22 close

IV30

B/A

XEPS

DIN DineEquity Inc

$74.04

42.0

B

$0.82

DLTR Dollar Tree Stores Inc.

$41.46

36.4

B

$0.99

JOY Joy Global Inc.

$62.77

42.2

B

$1.14

LAMR Lamar Advertising Co.

$43.85

47.5

B

$0.11

NRG NRG Energy Inc.

$23.95

25.7

B

($0.29)

TGT Target Corp.

$63.40

22.3

B

$1.47

TJX TJX Companies Inc.

$44.21

22.3

B

$0.81

CBI Chicago Bridge & Iron Co. NV

$52.89

32.3

A

$0.83

CLR Continental Resources Inc.

$81.22

31.4

A

$0.90

JCP J. C. Penney Company Inc

$21.55

89.0

A

($0.13)

LTD Limited Brands Inc.

$43.51

29.2

A

$1.73

MNST Monster Beverage Company

$49.76

62.7

A

$0.41

MYL Mylan Inc.

$28.81

22.0

A

$0.64

PANL Universal Display Corp.

$31.55

74.4

A

$0.13

RGR Sturm Ruger & Co. Inc.

$51.65

45.0

A

$0.73

UAN CVR Partners LP

$25.33

28.7

A

$0.18

WLL Whiting Petroleum Corp.

$48.13

33.5

A

$0.75

 

Thursday February 28:

Economic:  GDP – 8:30, Jobless Claims – 8:30, Chicago PMI –  9:45, Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index – 9:45,  EIA Natural Gas Report – 10:30, Kansas City Fed Manufacturing -11:00, Farm Prices – 3:00.

Other:  Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Richard Fisher speech on the economic outlook at Columbia University in New York – 4:30,  Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans speech on the economy to CFA Society of Iowa in Des Moines – 8:00.

Optionable Earnings:

Symbol

Company Name

FEB 22 close

IV30

B/A

XEPS

BRY Berry Petroleum Co.

$46.02

21.70

B

$0.74

CTRX Catamaran Corporation

$54.25

39.77

B

$0.34

IRM Iron Mountain Inc.

$34.43

29.31

B

$0.25

KSS Kohl’s Corp.

$46.51

33.24

B

$1.63

OCN Ocwen Financial Corp.

$38.08

53.81

B

$0.51

SHLD Sears Holdings Corporation

$47.36

58.13

B

VC Visteon Corporation

$55.76

32.71

B

$0.97

VRX Valeant Pharmaceuticals International

$65.69

37.88

B

$1.25

WNR Western Refining Inc.

$34.10

40.33

B

$1.27

CRM Salesforce.com

$168.55

41.41

A

($0.03)

DECK Deckers Outdoor Corp.

$40.84

83.23

A

$2.62

ENDP Endo Pharmaceuticals Holdings Inc.

$28.00

51.71

A

$1.56

GPS Gap Inc.

$32.05

39.16

A

$0.71

MDVN Medivation Inc.

$49.83

54.33

A

($0.51)

PANW Palo Alto Networks, Inc.

$54.62

57.44

A

($0.02)

SPLK Splunk Inc.

$34.04

57.18

A

($0.02)

 

Friday March 1:

Economic:  February Car Sales, January Personal Income and Outlays – 8:30, PMI Manufacturing Index – 8:58. University of Michigan/Reutters Consumer Sentiment – 9:55, February ISM Manufacturing Index – 10:00, January Construction Spending – 10:00, ECRI Weekly Leading Index – 10:30.

Other: Sequestration??

Optionable Earnings:

 

Symbol

Company Name

FEB 22 close

IV30

B/A

XEPS

FWLT Foster Wheeler Ltd.

$24.78

34.8

B

$0.47

 

Monday March 4:

Economic:  February Intuit Small Business Employment Survey – 8:30.

Optionable Earnings:

Symbol

Company Name

FEB 22 close

IV30

B/A

XEPS

SSYS Stratasys Inc.

$66.15

75.3

B

$0.27

RIG Transocean Inc.

$53.16

32.1

B

$0.81

 

 

 

 

 

 

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