The Prepared Mind 4.29.2013

“Chance favors the prepared mind.”

Last week the markets continued their upward move for 2013.  Rather than soaring, they could more aptly described as ambling up last week.  The broad based indexes flirted with all-time highs before closing the week 1% to 3% higher.  Gold continued to be the volatility leader by regaining much of the losses incurred from the previous week’s record sell-off.  A software glitch on Thursday prevented trading for 3 ½ hours in the VIX and the SPX at the CBOE.  The cap on the equity markets was Friday’s announcement by the Commerce Department that real GDP grew at a 2.5% annual rate during the first quarter.   The failure to achieve the consensus estimate of 2.8% created resistance for the markets achieving even higher levels.  The financial media pundits spent the week repeating the old saying, “Sell in May and go away.”  It remains to be seen if the continued global quantitative easing will prevent a sell-off or market correction. 

The star performer for the week was the Russell 2000 (RUT).   The RUT was up 2.95%, gaining 26.77 to close at 935.25.  The Dow Jones Industrials (DJIA) closed at 14,712.55 gaining a little more than 1% or 165 points.  The S&P 500 (SPX) closed at 1,582.24 – up 26.99 points or a gain of 1.74%.  The NDX gained 60.09 points to close at 2,840.55 –  a gain of 2.16%.  . The S&P 100 (OEX) closed at 712.40 – gaining 1.65% or 11.58 points..  The VIX and the other volatility indexes were down for the week.  The current implied volatility levels are higher than they were the last time the indexes were at similar levels.  These levels reflect current intraday volatility and possible concern about weakness in equity indexes.   The VIX closed last week at 13.61 a loss  of 1.36 – a weekly loss of 9.08%.  The other volatility measurements showed equal or greater gains.  Here is a capsule view of last week’s market numbers:

Index

Close

Weekly Change

% Weekly

% YTD

Volatility of  Index

Dow Jones Industrials (DJIA)

14,712.55

165.04

1.13%

12.27%

12.20% (VXD)

S&P 500 (SPX)

1,582.24

26.99

1.74%

10.94%

13.61% (VIX)

NASDAQ 100 (NDX)

2,840.55

60.09

2.16%

6.75%

15.48% (VXN)

Russell 2000 (RUT)

935.25

26.77

2.95%

9.85%

19.04% (RVX)

S&P 100 (OEX)

712.40

11.58

1.65%

10.17%

12.93% (VXO)

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX)

13.61

-1.36

-9.08%

NA

It is “Jobs Week” as the pundits like to remind us.  Expectations are that jobs will rebound from a poor March showing.  Additional focus will be on corporate earnings and the FOMC meeting.     The earnings season continues in full force this week.  These announcements include Eaton, Cummins, Marathon Petroleum, Pfizer, Visa, Time Warner, Mastercard, Comcast, Viacom. Facebook, Pjillips 66, Kraft, Estee Lauder, International Paper, AIG, Kellogg, and ADP.  The announcements can increase the prices and implied volatility of individual options. You should be aware of the earnings date for any equities you trade.   I have scanned stocks with upcoming earnings using the following criteria:  Price > 20, 30 Day Implied Volatility > 20, and Average Daily Option Volume > 200 contracts.  It is your responsibility to confirm the earnings dates. Continue to be wary of trading any products where there is not adequate liquidity and narrow enough markets.  You should be aware of daily volume and open interest in any products you trade.   I am including a consensus earnings estimate for each stock.  Stick with your plan.    Remain disciplined.  Remain on top of market news and movers.  Do not chase profits and disregard risk. 

Remember:

  “Chance favors the Prepared Mind.” – Louis Pasteur

This week’s economic news (All times are Eastern Daylight Time.) Events, dates and times are subject to change:

Monday April 29:

Economic:  Personal Income and Outlays – 8:30, Pending Homes Sales Index – 10:00, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey – 10:30.

Other.  Japanes and Chinese markets closed.

Optionable Earnings:

Symbol

Company Name

April 26 close

IV30

B/A

XEPS

BWP

Boardwalk Pipeline Partners LP

$30.36

22.1

B

$0.40

CYOU

Changyou.com Limited

$29.71

46.4

B

$1.41

ETN

Eaton Corporation, PLC

$58.69

29.2

B

$0.79

HNT

Health Net Inc.

$28.28

47.4

B

$0.40

SOHU

Sohu.com Inc.

$50.30

47.5

B

$0.46

TEN

Tenneco Inc.

$37.11

42.5

B

$0.65

BWLD

Buffalo Wild Wings Inc.

$95.38

41.0

A

$0.99

ESRX

Express Scripts Inc.

$58.00

30.1

A

$0.98

HIG

Hartford Financial Services Group Inc.

$27.56

30.7

A

$0.83

HLF

Herbalife Ltd.

$37.95

64.4

A

$1.07

HTZ

Hertz Global Holdings Inc.

$23.60

43.8

A

$0.18

JEC

Jacobs Engineering Group Inc.

$52.20

31.5

A

$0.82

MAS

Masco Corp.

$20.35

40.1

A

$0.13

NEM

Newmont Mining Corp.

$34.33

36.4

A

$0.80

PCL

Plum Creek Timber Co. Inc.

$53.40

24.3

A

$0.32

SSW

Seaspan Corporation

$20.90

35.2

A

$0.23

RGR

Sturm Ruger & Co. Inc.

$49.14

43.8

A

$1.04

SU

Suncor Energy Inc.

$28.97

26.7

A

$0.75

 

Tuesday April 30:

Economic:   ICSC-Goldman Sachs Retail Sales – 8:30,  Employment Cost Index – – 8:30, Redbook – 8:55, S&P Case-Shiller HPI – 9:00, Chicago PMI – 9:45, Conference Board Consumer Confidence – 10:00, State Street Investor Confidence – 10:00.

Other:  FOMC meeting begins.  Chinese markets closed.

Optionable Earnings:  

Symbol

Company Name

April 26 close

IV30

B/A

XEPS

BUD

Anheuser-Busch Companies Inc.

$96.21

24.6

D

$0.84

DDD

3D Systems Corp.

$35.12

65.5

B

$0.20

AET

Aetna Inc.

$56.88

29.0

B

$1.38

ADM

Archer-Daniels-Midland Co.

$33.18

26.6

B

$0.48

APL

Atlas Pipeline Partners LP

$36.18

26.1

B

$0.38

AVP

Avon Products Inc.

$22.35

46.1

B

$0.14

CMI

Cummins Inc.

$112.16

29.5

B

$1.85

DPZ

Dominos Pizza Inc.

$51.92

34.2

B

$0.56

ECL

Ecolab Inc.

$83.73

20.0

B

$0.59

ESV

Ensco International Inc.

$55.46

29.5

B

$1.29

BEN

Franklin Resources Inc.

$154.11

22.2

B

$2.47

MPC

Marathon Petroleum Corporation

$81.62

34.6

B

$2.14

MPLX

MPLX LP

$38.88

42.1

B

$0.27

ROC

Rockwood Holdings Inc.

$64.71

38.0

B

$0.69

THC

Tenet Healthcare Corp.

$39.87

41.5

B

$0.28

MHP

The McGraw-Hill Companies Inc.

$51.55

30.8

B

$0.74

TRW

TRW Automotive Holdings Corp.

$58.34

34.4

B

$1.46

SLCA

US Silica Holdings Inc.

$20.54

64.2

B

$0.36

VLO

Valero Energy Corp.

$41.24

37.8

B

$1.01

CAVM

Cavium Networks Inc.

$30.67

58.1

A

$0.00

ELLI

Ellie Mae, Inc.

$24.66

55.7

A

$0.18

FEIC

FEI Co.

$64.20

36.2

A

$0.65

FISV

Fiserv Inc.

$90.17

20.8

A

$1.32

IACI

IAC/InterActiveCorp

$46.76

39.7

A

$0.53

NCR

NCR Corp.

$26.72

34.0

A

$0.40

OKE

ONEOK Inc.

$51.46

24.5

A

$0.58

OKS

Oneok Partners L.P.

$54.69

22.2

A

$0.58

QCOR

Questcor Pharmaceuticals Inc

$29.28

81.2

A

$0.97

SQI

SciQuest, Inc.

$22.69

48.7

A

$0.03

SM

SM Energy Company

$61.73

39.6

A

$0.55

SWI

SolarWinds Inc

$49.31

55.5

A

$0.32

FIRE

Sourcefire Inc.

$51.36

67.6

A

$0.00

HOT

Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide Inc.

$62.60

27.8

A

$0.53

TRN

Trinity Industries Inc.

$41.57

42.9

A

$0.80

ULTI

Ultimate Software Group Inc.

$93.61

36.3

A

$0.12

UNXL

Uni-Pixel Inc.

$37.55

121.3

A

$0.20

VNR

Vanguard Natural Resources, LLC

$29.00

20.4

A

$0.28

VRTX

Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc.

$80.32

38.9

A

($0.16)

Wednesday May 1:

Economic:  Motor Vehicle Sales, MBA Purchase Applications – 7:00, ADP Employment Report – 8:30, PMI Manufacturing Index – 8:58, ISM Manufacturing Index – 10:00, Construction Spending – 10:00, EIA Petroleum Status Report – 10:30.

Other:  FOMC meeting announcement 2:00.  Chinese markets closed.  May Day closure of markets in Brazil Hong Kongm Germany and Russia,

Optionable Earnings:

Symbol

Company Name

April 26 close

IV30

B/A

XEPS

TS

Tenaris SA

$43.00

28.3

D

$0.73

ADT

ADT Corporation

$44.04

33.2

B

$0.43

AB

AllianceBernstein Holding L.P.

$23.01

34.6

B

$0.36

AFSI

Amtrust Financial Services Inc

$30.98

44.6

B

$0.74

CMCSA

Comcast Corp.

$40.75

20.9

B

$0.49

DLPH

Delphi Automotive PLC

$44.68

28.5

B

$0.96

DVN

Devon Energy Corp.

$53.47

28.4

B

$0.57

ENR

Energizer Holdings Inc.

$96.92

31.1

B

$1.29

GRMN

Garmin Ltd.

$35.31

38.0

B

$0.41

HSP

Hospira Inc.

$32.93

47.9

B

$0.44

HUM

Humana Inc.

$73.05

33.2

B

$1.78

ICE

InterContinental Exchange Inc.

$159.59

24.9

B

$1.98

MA

Mastercard Incorporated

$535.14

21.1

B

$6.19

PSX

Phillips 66

$61.90

36.7

B

$1.85

RDC

Rowan Companies Inc.

$32.08

33.8

B

$0.52

SBGI

Sinclair Broadcast Group Inc.

$27.44

55.9

B

$0.17

TWX

Time Warner Inc.

$59.39

22.9

B

$0.74

VIAB

Viacom Inc.

$64.49

33.7

B

$0.95

ALL

Allstate Corp.

$49.53

21.2

A

$1.22

CAR

Avis Budget Group Inc.

$28.13

53.3

A

$0.01

SAM

Boston Beer Co. Inc.

$167.64

33.9

A

$0.61

CBS

CBS Corporation

$45.97

27.0

A

$0.68

CXO

Concho Resources Inc.

$86.44

39.5

A

$0.82

CNQR

Concur Technologies Inc.

$69.65

41.1

A

($0.03)

CVRR

CVR Refining LP

$31.97

51.1

A

$1.56

EXPD

Expeditors International of Washington I

$35.44

31.3

A

$0.40

FB

Facebook, Inc.

$26.14

49.5

A

$0.08

LNC

Lincoln National Corp.

$33.66

29.3

A

$1.10

MAR

Marriott International Inc.

$41.64

24.7

A

$0.41

MET

MetLife Inc.

$38.91

28.5

A

$1.30

MUR

Murphy Oil Corp.

$61.41

26.6

A

$0.97

PCYC

Pharmacyclics, Inc.

$80.92

60.0

A

($0.08)

PXD

Pioneer Natural Resources Co.

$117.49

34.7

A

$0.97

PRU

Prudential Financial Inc.

$59.34

27.0

A

$1.89

STX

Seagate Technology

$36.54

43.3

A

$1.21

SFLY

Shutterfly Inc.

$45.97

52.3

A

($0.41)

TSO

Tesoro Corporation

$54.56

41.9

A

$0.74

V

Visa Inc.

$168.76

22.1

A

$1.81

YELP

Yelp, Inc.

$25.42

66.7

A

($0.05)

 

Thursday May2:

Economic:  Challenger Job-Cut report – 7:30, International Trade 8:30, Jobless Claims – 8:30, Productivity and Costs – 8:30, Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index – 9:45, EIA Natural Gas Report – 10:30.

Other:  ECB rate announcement expected in to be 0.25%. 

Optionable Earnings:

Symbol

Company Name

April 26 close

IV30

B/A

XEPS

ACT

Actavis, Inc.

$98.89

21.0

B

$1.87

ARG

Airgas Inc.

$97.51

21.8

B

$1.13

BEAM

Beam Inc.

$64.20

26.0

B

$0.54

BRY

Berry Petroleum Co.

$48.56

21.1

B

$0.84

CPN

Calpine Corp.

$21.35

20.5

B

($0.04)

CAH

Cardinal Health Inc.

$44.22

21.6

B

$0.95

CTRX

Catamaran Corporation

$57.16

44.1

B

$0.41

CNP

Centerpoint Energy Inc.

$24.32

20.5

B

$0.37

CI

CIGNA Corp.

$65.72

25.9

B

$1.42

EL

Estee Lauder Companies Inc.

$68.93

38.4

B

$0.33

FNP

Fifth & Pacific Companies Inc.

$21.35

45.7

B

($0.17)

FWLT

Foster Wheeler Ltd.

$20.65

36.7

B

$0.17

GM

General Motors Corp.

$30.71

30.1

B

$0.56

GEL

Genesis Energy LP

$48.96

23.1

B

$0.33

GG

Goldcorp Inc.

$29.90

38.4

B

$0.41

HSH

Hillshire Brands Co

$35.66

29.7

B

$0.32

IP

International Paper Co.

$47.58

31.0

B

$0.74

LQDT

Liquidity Services Inc.

$35.44

61.5

B

$0.43

MMP

Magellan Midstream Partners LP

$54.18

20.1

B

$0.50

MDC

MDC Holdings Inc.

$37.02

37.9

B

$0.26

NUS

Nu Skin Enterprises Inc.

$50.66

48.9

B

$0.79

OCN

Ocwen Financial Corp.

$37.22

44.4

B

$0.71

PXP

Plains Exploration & Production Company

$44.79

27.6

B

$0.89

GOLD

Randgold Resources Ltd.

$81.29

41.6

B

$1.06

RGLD

Royal Gold Inc.

$56.01

44.2

B

$0.41

STRA

Strayer Education Inc.

$48.05

62.5

B

$1.46

VRX

Valeant Pharmaceuticals International

$73.59

39.5

B

$1.28

WNR

Western Refining Inc.

$31.65

45.1

B

$1.01

AIRM

Air Methods Corp.

$36.61

50.0

A

$0.34

AIG

American International Group Inc.

$42.28

29.5

A

$0.88

ATHN

Athenahealth Inc.

$93.08

41.1

A

$0.12

BBG

Bill Barrett Corp.

$20.30

59.3

A

$0.01

CNQ

Canadian Natural Resources Ltd.

$29.58

29.1

A

$0.49

CF

CF Industries Holdings Inc.

$191.19

31.2

A

$6.08

CBI

Chicago Bridge & Iron Co. NV

$53.50

37.0

A

$0.75

DIN

DineEquity Inc

$70.70

35.4

A

$1.00

DNB

Dun & Bradstreet Corp.

$87.71

33.6

A

$1.33

ESC

Emeritus Corp.

$24.92

39.0

A

($0.56)

FSLR

First Solar Inc.

$44.47

70.4

A

$0.75

FLT

Flight Safety Technologies Inc.

$74.99

30.2

A

$0.77

FLR

Fluor Corporation

$56.63

33.6

A

$0.96

GILD

Gilead Sciences Inc.

$51.43

36.1

A

$0.47

LNKD

LinkedIn Corporation

$187.87

56.8

A

$0.05

MYL

Mylan Inc.

$29.28

21.6

A

$0.62

OPEN

Open Table, Inc.

$55.20

51.0

A

$0.29

STO

Statoil ASA

$23.65

37.6

A

$0.79

TPX

Tempur Pedic International Inc.

$48.92

56.7

A

$0.60

TDC

Teradata Corporation

$50.43

41.8

A

$0.53

THOR

Thoratec Corp.

$36.86

34.0

A

$0.40

WTW

Weight Watcher’s International Inc.

$42.08

54.8

A

$0.63

XL

XL Capital Ltd.

$31.51

23.5

A

$0.66

 

 

Friday May3:

Economic:  Employment Situation  – 8:30, Factory Orders – 10:00, ISM Non-manufacturing Index – 10:00. – 8:30, University of Michigan/Reuters Consumer Sentiment – 9:55.

Other:  Japanese markets closed.  Bank of Japan releases minute of April’s policy meeting. 

Optionable Earnings:

Symbol

Company Name

April 26 close

IV30

B/A

XEPS

CBOE

CBOE Holdings Inc.

$36.61

21.7

B

$0.47

LNG

Cheniere Energy Inc.

$27.66

42.1

B

($0.25)

CQP

Cheniere Energy Partners LP.

$27.31

26.5

B

($0.03)

MCO

Moody’s Corp.

$55.05

34.6

B

$0.86

REGN

Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc.

$216.75

42.1

B

$0.97

SEP

Spectra Energy Partners LP

$38.17

25.9

B

$0.48

NGLS

Targa Resources Partners LP

$46.68

25.7

B

$0.22

UPL

Ultra Petroleum Corp.

$20.97

45.1

B

$0.27

MTGE

American Capital Mortgage Investment Corp.

$25.91

20.4

A

$0.85

 

 

 

Monday May 6:

Economic:  TD Ameritrade IMX – 12:30.

Optionable Earnings:

Symbol

Company Name

April 26 close

IV30

B/A

XEPS

APO

American Community Properties Trust

$26.02

39.6

B

$1.26

BBEP

Breitburn Energy Partners LP

$20.76

22.0

B

$0.15

DISH

EchoStar Communications Corp.

$40.22

39.1

B

$0.53

TSN

Tyson Foods Inc.

$24.88

28.6

B

$0.46

APC

Anadarko Petroleum Corp.

$84.12

31.6

A

$0.91

EOG

EOG Resources Inc.

$121.86

33.1

A

$1.13

HOLX

Hologic Inc.

$20.50

39.8

A

$0.34

LGCY

Legacy Reserves Lp

$27.95

31.1

A

$0.30

PAA

Plains All American Pipeline LP

$57.50

21.4

A

$0.88

 

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