The Prepared Mind 8.5.2013

As Sonny and Cher said, “The Beat Goes On,” and on and on and on.  The S&P 500 (SPX) set a new record for the 25th time this year; the Russell 2000 (RUT) reached a new closing high for the 47th time.  For 2013, the major indexes are up 18% to 24%.  Yet there is little excitement in the market.  Analyst and market pundits continue to show disrespect for this rally by highlighting economic lack of economic growth, ho-hum indicators and marginal earnings growth.  Earnings growth and revenue are flatlining, yet investors are paying more for earnings-per-share.  A year ago investors were paying 12 times earnings for the S&P 500.  The S&P 500 now garners 15.5 earnings.  Numerous theories are put forth to explain the rally.  This week the oft repeated theory was a revival of the   “The best house on the worst street” theory.  The “just good enough” explanation has replaced the “bad news is good news” mantra.

The NASDAQ 100 (NDX) was once again the strongest index last week.  The NASDAQ 100 (NDX) closed at 3,143.52 gaining 2.19% or 67.29 points.  The Russell 2000 (RUT) gained 1.05%, up 11.01 points to close at 1,047.99.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) closed at 15,658.36 –   up nearly 100 points or a gain of 0..64%.  The S&P 500 (SPX) closed above 1,700,  trading at 1,709.37  – up 18.02 points or a gain of 1.07%.  The S&P 100 (OEX) closed at 765.70  – gaining 6.54 points or 0..86%.    The VIX closed last week at 11.98% – loss of 0.74 or 5.82%.  The other volatility indexes show similar losses for the week and are trading near 5 year lows.

Here is a capsule view of last week’s market numbers:

Index

Close

Weekly Change

% Weekly

% YTD

Volatility of  Index

Dow Jones Industrials (DJIA)

15,658.36

99.53

0.64%

19.49%

11.25% (VXD)

S&P 500 (SPX)

1,709.67

18.02

1.07%

19.88%

11.98% (VIX)

NASDAQ 100 (NDX)

3,143.52

67.29

2.19%

18.14%

12.77% (VXN)

Russell 2000 (RUT)

1,059.00

11.01

1.05%

24.38%

16.32% (RVX)

S&P 100 (OEX)

765.70

6.54

0.86%

18.42%

11.19% (VXO)

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX)

11.98

-0.74

-5.82%

NA

This will be a quiet week for economic announcements.  All eyes will be on Wednesday evening’s release of Chines manufacturing data. The earnings season is winding down to a close.   The weekly jobs data will be of interest.  Several technical analysts are calling for major resistance at 1,720 the S&P 500.  These analysts suggest waiting for a pause or a pullback before adding to new long positions.  Their advice echoes the same advice they were giving 4 months and 10% ago.

I have scanned stocks with upcoming earnings using the following criteria:  Price > 20, 30 Day Implied Volatility > 20, and Average Daily Option Volume > 200 contracts.  These stocks are highlighted under the heading “Optionable Earnings” in the daily calendar which follows.  Continue to be wary of trading any products where there is not adequate liquidity and narrow enough markets.  You should be aware of daily volume and open interest in any products you trade.   I am including a consensus earnings estimate for each stock.  Stick with your plan.    Remain disciplined.

Remember:

  “Chance favors the Prepared Mind.” – Louis Pasteur

“You can observe a lot just by watching” – Yogi Berra

This week’s economic news (All times are Eastern Daylight Time.) Events, dates and times are subject to change:

Monday August 5:

Economic:  Gallup US Consumer Spending Measure – 8:30, ISM Non-manufacturing Index – -10:00, TD Ameritrade IMX – 12:30.

International Economic:  EU Retail Sales – 5:00 AM.

Other:  Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Richard Fisher speech on the economy to state retirement administrators in Portland, Oregon – 11:45.

  Optionable Earnings:

Symbol

Company Name

August 2 close

IV30

B/A

XEPS

ROC Rockwood Holdings, Inc.

$67.94

31.2

B

$0.76

TSN Tyson Foods, Inc.

$28.46

35.3

B

$0.59

APL Atlas Pipeline Partners, L.P.

$38.50

24.6

A

$0.41

BSFT BroadSoft Inc

$29.95

71.0

A

($0.03)

FNF Fidelity National Financial Inc

$25.03

28.3

A

$0.60

HOLX Hologic, Inc.

$22.86

35.3

A

$0.37

ININ Interactive Intelligence Group Inc

$57.77

50.6

A

($0.08)

MAC Macerich Co

$62.14

22.0

A

$0.81

VOLC Volcano Corporation

$20.48

45.9

A

$0.00

VNO Vornado Realty Trust

$84.16

21.7

A

$1.24

WMGI Wright Medical Group Inc

$28.07

47.6

A

($0.13)

 

Tuesday August 6:

Economic:  Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index  – 8:30,  ICSC – Goldman Sachs Store Sales – 7:45, International Trade – 8:30, Redbook – 8:55,  Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) – 10:00.

International Economic:  Great Britain Industrial Production – 4:30 AM, German Manufacturers’ Orders – 6:00 AM.

Other: Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans holds press breakfast – 9:30. Optionable Earnings:

Symbol

Company Name

August 2 close

IV30

B/A

XEPS

ADM Archer Daniels Midland Company

$37.18

26.7

B

$0.42

CHTR Charter Communications, Inc.

$127.96

39.8

B

$0.36

CTSH Cognizant Technology Solutions Corp

$73.48

38.9

B

$0.97

CVS CVS Caremark Corporation

$62.17

21.9

B

$0.96

DWRE Demandware Inc

$46.10

49.4

B

($0.33)

DISH DISH Network Corp

$45.01

48.8

B

$0.54

EMR Emerson Electric Co.

$62.55

21.5

B

$0.99

EXPD Expeditors International of Washington

$41.68

31.6

B

$0.43

FE FirstEnergy Corp.

$38.25

20.4

B

$0.52

FOSL Fossil Group Inc

$114.09

52.9

B

$0.93

HAR Harman International Industries Inc,

$60.45

41.7

B

$0.87

HCN Health Care REIT, Inc.

$63.58

22.0

B

$0.92

ICE IntercontinentalExchange Inc

$185.80

26.0

B

$2.17

KORS Michael Kors Holdings Ltd

$68.65

45.9

B

$0.49

TAP Molson Coors Brewing Company

$50.91

32.0

B

$1.41

NSM Nationstar Mortgage Holdings Inc

$48.45

51.7

B

$0.97

PCRX Pacira Pharmaceuticals Inc

$34.11

54.2

B

($0.43)

PH Parker-Hannifin Corporation

$106.79

27.7

B

$1.96

REGN Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc

$278.29

50.1

B

$0.86

RDC Rowan Companies PLC

$35.25

27.4

B

$0.55

SE Spectra Energy Corp.

$36.42

20.7

B

$0.32

SPB Spectrum Brands Holdings, Inc.

$56.70

27.1

B

$1.09

TECD Tech Data Corp

$52.85

51.0

B

$1.11

THC Tenet Healthcare Corp

$44.39

42.5

B

$0.69

VSI Vitamin Shoppe Inc

$48.16

43.7

B

$0.60

ZTS Zoetis Inc

$30.16

26.5

B

$0.36

ALDW Alon USA Partners LP

$21.55

33.4

A

$0.25

CAR Avis Budget Group Inc.

$32.18

41.6

A

$0.49

CHRW C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc.

$61.07

39.3

A

$0.74

CF CF Industries Holdings, Inc.

$195.98

33.6

A

$7.80

CSC Computer Sciences Corporation

$49.24

50.0

A

$0.34

DVA DaVita HealthCare Partners Inc

$117.18

26.3

A

$1.86

FSLR First Solar, Inc.

$48.15

69.2

A

$0.50

GPOR Gulfport Energy Corporation

$56.39

49.0

A

$0.13

JAZZ Jazz Pharmaceuticals PLC

$76.33

41.4

A

$1.37

MRO Marathon Oil Corporation

$37.52

24.3

A

$0.71

OAS Oasis Petroleum Inc.

$43.37

42.4

A

$0.60

SNTS Santarus, Inc.

$24.88

68.3

A

$0.14

BID Sothebys

$44.63

35.8

A

$1.36

DIS The Walt Disney Company

$65.36

22.2

A

$1.03

URS URS Corp

$47.83

28.5

A

$0.97

Z Zillow Inc

$84.83

83.4

A

($0.39)

 

 

Wednesday August 7:

Economic:  MBA Purchase Applications – 7:00, Gallup Job Creation Index – 8:30,  EIA Petroleum Status Report – 10:30, Farm Prices – 3:00.

International Economic: Bank of Japan announcement, German Industrial Production – 6:00 AM,
China Manufacturing PMI – 9:00 PM.

Other:  Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Plosser speech on economic outlook to Women in Housing Finance in Washington – 12:30, Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Sandra Pianalto speech in Cleveland – 1:40.

Optionable Earnings: 

Symbol

Company Name

August 2 close

IV30

B/A

XEPS

IEP Icahn Enterprises LP

$74.69

33.0

D

$1.58

AOL AOL, Inc.

$37.90

63.0

B

$0.33

CLMT Calumet Specialty Products Partners,

$32.56

31.6

B

$0.76

CRZO Carrizo Oil & Gas, Inc.

$32.86

39.4

B

$0.54

CLH Clean Harbors Inc

$57.49

45.3

B

$0.60

DVN Devon Energy Corp

$56.33

25.8

B

$0.94

EOG EOG Resources Inc

$152.07

35.0

B

$1.83

HFC HollyFrontier Corp

$46.31

36.9

B

$1.40

VOYA ING US Inc

$31.97

35.2

B

$0.62

LQDT Liquidity Services, Inc.

$29.05

53.4

B

$0.45

MPEL Melco Crown Entertainment Ltd

$25.65

37.3

B

$0.27

MEMP Memorial Production Partners LP

$20.81

27.2

B

$0.40

MOLX Molex Incorporated

$30.28

30.0

B

$0.34

RL Ralph Lauren Corp

$186.99

29.9

B

$1.92

GOLD Randgold Resources Ltd. (ADR)

$72.65

42.0

B

$0.54

TWX Time Warner Inc

$63.06

22.8

B

$0.75

VRX Valeant Pharmaceuticals Intl Inc

$96.04

34.8

B

$1.28

AGU Agrium Inc. (USA)

$83.48

41.5

A

$4.95

BOFI BofI Holding, Inc.

$55.99

38.6

A

$0.75

BKD Brookdale Senior Living, Inc.

$29.71

40.1

A

$0.01

CTL CenturyLink, Inc.

$36.32

21.1

A

$0.67

CXO Concho Resources Inc.

$95.12

33.8

A

$1.01

CLR Continental Resources, Inc.

$96.27

32.9

A

$1.26

DXCM DexCom, Inc.

$22.29

51.3

A

($0.16)

EXP Eagle Materials, Inc.

$68.50

39.2

A

$0.52

ETE Energy Transfer Equity, L.P.

$65.41

46.8

A

$0.52

ETP Energy Transfer Partners LP

$50.82

24.6

A

$0.49

EXXI Energy XXI (Bermuda) Limited

$27.64

36.1

A

$0.45

GMCR Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc.

$78.49

77.6

A

$0.77

MWE Markwest Energy Partners LP

$70.54

23.0

A

$0.22

MDLZ Mondelez International Inc

$31.71

29.5

A

$0.35

NRP Natural Resource Partners LP

$20.14

28.4

A

$0.41

PPO Polypore International, Inc.

$43.47

51.3

A

$0.33

PRU Prudential Financial Inc

$82.62

25.3

A

$1.98

SCTY SolarCity Corp

$40.57

82.6

A

($0.37)

TSLA Tesla Motors Inc

$135.55

79.4

A

$0.36

RIG Transocean LTD

$48.00

26.9

A

$1.05

TUMI Tumi Holdings Inc

$25.12

51.0

A

$0.20

TWTC TW Telecom Inc

$30.39

27.2

A

$0.12

 

Thursday August 8:

Economic:   Chain Store Sales, Challenger Job Cut Report – 7:30, Jobless Claims – 8:30, Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index – 9:45, EIA Natural Gas Report – 10:30.

International Economic: No major announcements.

 

Optionable Earnings: 

Symbol

Company Name

August 2 close

IV30

B/A

XEPS

AAP Advance Auto Parts, Inc.

$83.43

31.9

B

$1.49

APO Apollo Global Management LLC

$27.33

41.5

B

$0.52

BEAM BEAM Inc

$65.81

23.4

B

$0.60

CNQ Canadian Natural Resource Ltd

$31.59

29.5

B

$0.39

CLDX Celldex Therapeutics, Inc.

$20.87

72.0

B

($22.00)

RDEN Elizabeth Arden, Inc.

$41.77

48.5

B

$0.32

FWM Fairway Group Holdings Corp

$24.97

54.7

B

($0.07)

FWLT Foster Wheeler AG

$21.64

42.0

B

$0.33

HSH Hillshire Brands Co

$35.76

31.2

B

$0.25

INFI Infinity Pharmaceuticals Inc.

$22.94

64.9

B

($0.62)

LAMR Lamar Advertising Co

$44.20

35.9

B

$0.21

LINE Linn Energy LLC

$26.99

51.6

B

$0.23

LNCO LinnCo LLC

$29.69

55.2

B

$0.34

PMT PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust

$21.95

21.6

B

$0.72

RGLD Royal Gold, Inc USA)

$52.18

41.7

B

$0.27

SN Sanchez Energy Corp

$23.83

37.2

B

$0.32

SRPT Sarepta Therapeutics Inc

$37.50

58.7

B

($0.72)

SFUN SouFun Holdings Limited (ADR)

$35.17

69.1

B

$0.53

SSYS Stratasys Ltd

$90.40

57.9

B

($0.05)

TOO Teekay Offshore Partners L.P.

$31.87

22.6

B

($0.33)

AIRM Air Methods Corp

$35.53

62.1

A

$0.56

ALNY Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

$47.52

56.7

A

($0.34)

AGO Assured Guaranty Ltd.

$22.19

35.3

A

$0.59

ATLS Atlas Energy LP

$53.99

30.2

A

$0.73

ARP Atlas Resource Partners, L.P.

$21.74

31.8

A

$0.04

CFN CareFusion Corporation

$38.95

35.7

A

$0.56

DDS Dillard’s, Inc.

$85.72

35.1

A

$0.81

LGF Lions Gate Entertainment Corp.

$33.28

36.8

A

$0.08

MDVN Medivation Inc

$57.23

74.8

A

($0.22)

MNST Monster Beverage Corp

$62.52

43.7

A

$0.64

ONXX Onyx Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

$134.40

29.3

A

($0.63)

PCLN Priceline.com Inc

$904.35

36.7

A

$9.03

RAX Rackspace Hosting, Inc.

$46.10

64.5

A

$0.14

RNF Rentech Nitrogen Partners LP

$32.64

35.8

A

$0.93

SLXP Salix Pharmaceuticals, Ltd.

$75.53

35.6

A

$0.85

DATA Tableau Software Inc

$57.62

64.5

A

($0.17)

TMUS T-Mobile Us Inc

$24.23

51.2

A

$0.27

UBNT Ubiquiti Networks Inc

$21.12

76.1

A

$0.27

OLED Universal Display Corporation

$28.66

68.2

A

$0.28

 

Friday August 9:

Economic: Wholesale Trade – 10:00.

International Economic:  No major announcements.

Optionable Earnings:

Symbol

Company Name

August 2 close

IV30

B/A

XEPS

ABFS Arkansas Best Corporation

$22.77

48.6

B

$0.20

EVEP EV Energy Partners, L.P.

$42.36

38.6

B

$0.21

NRG NRG Energy Inc

$27.08

31.0

B

$0.25

TPC Tutor Perini Corp

$20.64

49.9

B

$0.37

 

Monday August 12:

Economic:  No major announcements.

International Economic:  Japan GDP – 7:50 PM on Sunday. 

Optionable Earnings:

Symbol

Company Name

August 2 close

IV30

B/A

XEPS

SYY SYSCO Corporation

$34.79

25.3

B

$0.55

IOC InterOil Corporation (USA)

$83.37

72.4

A

($0.05)

NTI Northern Tier Energy LP

$24.50

40.2

A

$0.53

 

 

 

 

Comments are closed