The Prepared Mind: January 19, 2015

"Chance favors the prepared mind." -- Louis Pasteur

“Chance favors the prepared mind.” — Louis Pasteur

By Frank Fahey

“It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble.  It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.” – Mark Twain

 January has been very ugly.   US Indices are off to their worst yearly start ever and firmly in correction territory.  The Dow Jones Industrials are on track to suffer the worst month since February 2009.  The S&P 500 is down a bit over 8% since the beginning of the year.  If the last week of 2015 is included, the benchmark index is down 8.8%.  The tech laden NASDAQ 100 is down over 11% in the past three weeks.  The small cap dominated Russell 2000 is down over 11% over the past 2 weeks.  According to Barron’s this is the worst three week span since the three weeks ending October 24, 2008.  Commodities – specifically crude oil – have shown continued weakness. Crude oil ended the week at $28.42, the lowest price since 2003.  The blamed for this sell-off has been placed on a Chinese stock market in freefall, collapsing commodity prices and a plunge in the high yield bond market.

The debate is taking place in financial circles about the potential for a recession in 2016.  I do not know the likelihood of this happening.  I am reining in my market activity.  I am focusing on risk, not reward. I have reduced my trading portfolio by over 50% during the last five trading days.  The current market has been characterized by very large daily price swings.  The strategies I am using are small, designed to cushion me against these significant price moves and able to be easily adjusted or closed.  Be wary and nimble.

Here is an overview of the market behavior last week:

Index 15-Jan Weekly Change % Weekly 2015 YTD Volatility of  Index
Dow Jones Industrials (DJIA) 15988.08 (358.37) -2.19% -8.25% 25.57% (VXD)
S&P 500 (SPX) 1880.29 (41.74) -2.17% -8.01% 27.02% (VIX)
NASDAQ 100 (NDX) 4139.95 (131.17) -3.07% -9.95% 29.13% (VXN)
Russell 2000 (RUT) 1006.83 (38.09) -3.65% -11.21% 29.65% (RVX)
S&P 100 (OEX) 855.58 0.00 0.00% -6.13% 27.75% (VXO)

Data Source: OptionVue7

The VIX continues to be at its highest levels since September 2015.  It should The VIX showed minimal gains despite the continued downward move in the market.   The VIX curve ended the week in backwardization for the 8th straight day.  The symbol VIX is a cash price indicator.  All VIX op[tions trades are against a future.  The VIX  January future (VXF6) and associated options end trading on Tuesday January 17.  These options expire on Wednesday January 20.  The exercise / settlement values on the expiration date are not the opening values of the VIX / RVX index, but rather their special opening quote values.    These quotes have their own symbol and are printed sometime after opening—usually a few minutes after, but it can take an hour or two to achieve a settlement.  The VIX settlement value ticker is VRO.

Here is an overview of last week for the VIX and related products:

Indexes Ticker 15-Jan 8-Jan Change % Change
CBOE Volatility Index VIX 27.02 27.01 0.01 0.04%
VIX January Future (1/120/2016) VXF6 26.475 25.275 1.200 4.75%
VIX February Future (2/17/2016) VXG6 24.350 23.075 1.275 5.53%
VIX March Future (3/16/2016) VXH6 23.650 22.275 1.375 6.17%
CBOE Short-term Volatility Index VXST 29.60 27.98 1.62 5.79%
CBOE 3 Month Volatility Index VXV 26.88 26.23 0.65 2.48%
CBOE Mid-term Volatility Index (6 month) VXMT 26.19 25.49 0.70 2.75%
VIX of VIX VVIX 116.41 116.46 (0.05) -0.04%
Long VIX ETP’s      
iPath S&P 500  VIX Short Term Futures ETN VXX 26.70 24.83 1.87 7.53%
ProShares VIX Short Term Futures ETF VIXY 17.74 16.49 1.25 7.58%
iPath S&P 500  VIX Mid-Tem Futures ETN VXZ 12.97 12.13 0.84 6.92%
Inverse VIX ETP’s      
Daily Inverse VIX Short Term ETN XIV 18.44 20.45 (2.01) -9.83%
ProShares Short VIX Short Term Future ETF SVXY 26.03 39.87 (13.84) -34.71%

Data Source: OptionVue7

The highlight of the coming week is is the release by China of fourth-quarter gross domestic product, as well as industrial production and retail sales.

This week will be active with earnings announcements picking up the week afterwards.   The earnings highlights are Delta Airlines, eBay, Morgan Stanley, IBM, Bank of America, UnitedHealth, Johnson Controls, Northern Trust, F5 Networks, American Express, Intuitive Surgical Starbucks, Travelers, and General Electric. I did not open any new positions based on earnings strategies this past week.  Having no position is a viable strategy.  I decided to avoid simultaneously opening position which would be effected by two volatility events – a major market sell-off and earnings announcements.

OptionVue7 has the ability to identify stocks 30 days out with a new enhanced Earnings Search feature.  I have done a quick search 14to 28 days forward for candidates for double calendars.  Here are the results of my initial scan for double calendar candidates.  You should further filter any of the stocks with your own risk/reward criteria.

Once again, it is your responsibility to confirm these earnings dates. The date and time of earnings announcements can and do change.

Symbol Company Name Jan 8 Close IV30 B/A DATE
AET Aetna Inc $108.25 36.46 BMO 1-Feb
CAH Cardinal Health Inc $81.78 28.98 BMO 1-Feb
AFL AFLAC Incorporated $57.32 28.96 AMC 1-Feb
GOOG Google  Inc. $714.72 40.36 AMC 1-Feb
GOOGL Alphabet Inc $731.39 39.88 AMC 1-Feb
TSO Tesoro Corporation $96.49 50.70 AMC 1-Feb
AGCO AGCO Corporation $45.12 38.38 BMO 2-Feb
BAX Baxter International Inc $35.31 29.45 BMO 2-Feb
DOW Dow Chemical Co $44.24 41.83 BMO 2-Feb
EMR Emerson Electric Co. $43.83 35.37 BMO 2-Feb
LYB LyondellBasell Industries NV $76.37 43.24 BMO 2-Feb
MNK Mallinckrodt PLC $65.72 68.38 BMO 2-Feb
ST Sensata Technologies Holding N.V. $36.74 43.30 BMO 2-Feb
UPS United Parcel Service, Inc. $91.15 29.27 BMO 2-Feb
BBSI Barrett Business Services, Inc. $38.47 74.44 AMC 2-Feb
CHRW C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. $63.13 31.13 AMC 2-Feb
CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. $454.30 51.98 AMC 2-Feb
DOX Amdocs Limited $53.92 31.43 AMC 2-Feb
EQR Equity Residential $78.57 25.24 AMC 2-Feb
EW Edwards Lifesciences Corp $77.10 36.55 AMC 2-Feb
GILD Gilead Sciences, Inc. $93.02 40.68 AMC 2-Feb
MANH Manhattan Associates, Inc. $56.23 48.46 AMC 2-Feb
MYGN Myriad Genetics, Inc. $42.39 47.54 AMC 2-Feb
XOM Exxon Mobil Corporation $79.12 34.43   2-Feb
ADP Automatic Data Processing $78.99 27.08 BMO 3-Feb
CMCSA Comcast Corporation $55.05 33.37 BMO 3-Feb
CTSH Cognizant Technology Solutions Corp $60.21 38.69 BMO 3-Feb
ETN Eaton Corporation PLC $48.32 35.56 BMO 3-Feb
GSK GlaxoSmithKline plc (ADR) $40.28 28.46 BMO 3-Feb
IACI IAC/InterActiveCorp $55.38 42.46 BMO 3-Feb
IP International Paper Co $36.54 33.02 BMO 3-Feb
NVO Novo Nordisk A/S (ADR) $54.96 34.89 BMO 3-Feb
SEP Spectra Energy Partners, LP $45.72 48.32 BMO 3-Feb
ALL Allstate Corp $58.42 27.85 AMC 3-Feb
BWLD Buffalo Wild Wings $151.22 48.86 AMC 3-Feb
CBOE CBOE Holdings, Inc $63.25 26.22 AMC 3-Feb
CCK Crown Holdings, Inc. $46.02 34.53 AMC 3-Feb
LNC Lincoln National Corporation $41.51 41.13 AMC 3-Feb
MDLZ Mondelez International Inc $41.36 36.32 AMC 3-Feb
MET Metlife Inc $43.50 36.03 AMC 3-Feb
WYNN Wynn Resorts, Limited $51.50 76.73 AMC 3-Feb
YUM Yum! Brands, Inc. $70.01 37.61 AMC 3-Feb
FLT FleetCor Technologies, Inc. $120.02 41.09 DMT 4-Feb
ABC AmerisourceBergen Corp. $93.72 30.03 BMO 4-Feb
CHTR Charter Communications, Inc. $172.31 39.37 BMO 4-Feb
CI CIGNA Corporation $138.72 29.33 BMO 4-Feb
CMI Cummins Inc. $86.68 37.05 BMO 4-Feb
COP ConocoPhillips $41.25 56.16 BMO 4-Feb
DNKN Dunkin Brands Group Inc $38.13 35.69 BMO 4-Feb
EQT EQT Corporation $52.04 52.76 BMO 4-Feb
ETR Entergy Corporation $69.10 25.17 BMO 4-Feb
GWPH GW Pharmaceuticals PLC- ADR $56.58 98.83 BMO 4-Feb
ICE Intercontinental Exchange Inc $250.07 28.94 BMO 4-Feb
KORS Michael Kors Holdings Ltd $36.11 54.76 BMO 4-Feb
LAZ Lazard Ltd $35.02 51.21 BMO 4-Feb
LVLT Level 3 Communications, Inc. $48.36 41.53 BMO 4-Feb
MMP Magellan Midstream Partners, L.P. $66.19 45.81 BMO 4-Feb
OXY Occidental Petroleum Corporation $64.00 40.65 BMO 4-Feb
PRLB Proto Labs Inc $56.87 48.62 BMO 4-Feb
RDS.A Royal Dutch Shell plc (ADR) $41.35 45.26 BMO 4-Feb
RDS.B Royal Dutch Shell Plc CL B $41.07 36.46 BMO 4-Feb
RL Ralph Lauren Corp $101.04 43.17 BMO 4-Feb
WHR Whirlpool Corporation $134.03 42.79 BMO 4-Feb
ATHN athenahealth, Inc $151.74 53.93 AMC 4-Feb
ATVI Activision Blizzard, Inc. $35.40 45.67 AMC 4-Feb
DATA Tableau Software Inc $82.73 70.21 AMC 4-Feb
DECK Deckers Outdoor Corp $42.62 72.90 AMC 4-Feb
DLPH Delphi Automotive PLC $69.42 43.17 AMC 4-Feb
HAIN Hain Celestial Group Inc $36.50 51.43 AMC 4-Feb
HIG Hartford Financial Services Group Inc $40.25 40.09 AMC 4-Feb
KHC Kraft Heinz Co $70.74 27.98 AMC 4-Feb
LNKD LinkedIn Corp $203.21 58.35 AMC 4-Feb
PKI PerkinElmer, Inc. $48.10 41.41 AMC 4-Feb
POST Post Holdings Inc $56.97 59.23 AMC 4-Feb
QRVO Qorvo Inc $39.42 79.80 AMC 4-Feb
TPX Tempur Sealy International Inc $62.02 50.16 AMC 4-Feb
VMC Vulcan Materials Company $85.31 44.10 AMC 4-Feb
AON Aon PLC $87.39 28.34 BMO 5-Feb
CME CME Group Inc $84.70 30.09 BMO 5-Feb
EL Estee Lauder Companies Inc $84.28 32.61 BMO 5-Feb
MCO Moody’s Corporation $88.12 34.68 BMO 5-Feb
TM Toyota Motor Corp (ADR) $116.29 26.91 BMO 5-Feb
TSN Tyson Foods, Inc. $52.91 37.46 BMO 5-Feb
HRS Harris Corporation $84.49 30.52 AMC 5-Feb
GOLD Randgold Resources Ltd. (ADR) $61.03 41.24 BMO 8-Feb
HAS Hasbro, Inc. $70.20 36.49 BMO 8-Feb
SOHU Sohu.com Inc $52.97 51.29 BMO 8-Feb
AGU Agrium Inc. (USA) $86.18 33.51 BMO 9-Feb
CNC Centene Corp $62.58 45.07 BMO 9-Feb
CVS CVS Health Corp $95.51 27.76 BMO 9-Feb
EGRX Eagle Pharmaceuticals Inc $78.67 72.23 BMO 9-Feb
HCP HCP, Inc. $35.96 28.57 BMO 9-Feb
IR Ingersoll-Rand PLC $52.06 32.59 BMO 9-Feb
MLM Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. $123.61 43.47 BMO 9-Feb
RAI Reynolds American, Inc. $47.40 27.98 BMO 9-Feb
REGN Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc $479.08 44.56 BMO 9-Feb
SAVE Spirit Airlines Incorporated $39.00 60.37 BMO 9-Feb
SNY Sanofi SA (ADR) $40.04 31.31 BMO 9-Feb
WYN Wyndham Worldwide Corporation $66.74 35.44 BMO 9-Feb
AKAM Akamai Technologies, Inc. $46.91 54.51 AMC 9-Feb
CERN Cerner Corporation $58.19 35.35 AMC 9-Feb
DIS Walt Disney Co $99.11 34.55 AMC 9-Feb
FIS Fidelity National Information Services $60.30 31.08 AMC 9-Feb
NBIX Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. $47.75 80.04 AMC 9-Feb
OTEX Open Text Corporation (USA) $45.97 39.92 AMC 9-Feb
PNRA Panera Bread Co $192.15 35.73 AMC 9-Feb
SGEN Seattle Genetics, Inc. $37.18 56.16 AMC 9-Feb
TMH TeamHealth Holdings Inc $38.51 56.36 AMC 9-Feb
VIAB Viacom, Inc. $41.43 49.12 AMC 9-Feb
ARMH ARM Holdings plc (ADR) $42.23 41.11 BMO 10-Feb
HOT Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide Inc $61.19 37.02 BMO 10-Feb
HUM Humana Inc $167.23 31.80 BMO 10-Feb
OC Owens Corning $43.00 37.73 BMO 10-Feb
SEE Sealed Air Corp $41.32 36.71 BMO 10-Feb
TWX Time Warner Inc $70.55 36.78 BMO 10-Feb
WEX WEX Inc $74.23 42.97 BMO 10-Feb
EXPE Expedia Inc $107.67 54.03 AMC 10-Feb
NTES NetEase Inc (ADR) $163.52 48.08 AMC 10-Feb
ORLY O’Reilly Automotive Inc $235.99 35.28 AMC 10-Feb
PRU Prudential Financial Inc $72.07 38.53 AMC 10-Feb
PXD Pioneer Natural Resources $115.96 56.45 AMC 10-Feb
TSLA Tesla Motors Inc $206.18 56.86 AMC 10-Feb
AFSI AmTrust Financial Services Inc $56.13 39.49 BMO 11-Feb
AIG American International Group Inc $57.30 34.89 BMO 11-Feb
APA Apache Corporation $37.03 64.67 BMO 11-Feb
BG Bunge Ltd $63.95 36.37 BMO 11-Feb
CAB Cabelas Inc $42.67 65.26 BMO 11-Feb
CCE Coca-Cola Enterprises Inc $46.18 26.40 BMO 11-Feb
DPS Dr Pepper Snapple Group Inc. $90.22 26.43 BMO 11-Feb
GRA W. R. Grace & Co $92.47 31.27 BMO 11-Feb
INCY Incyte Corporation $80.98 70.87 BMO 11-Feb
NLSN Nielsen Holdings PLC $45.70 37.00 BMO 11-Feb
SHPG Shire PLC (ADR) $180.31 39.52 BMO 11-Feb
SNI Scripps Networks Interactive, Inc. $57.10 35.47 BMO 11-Feb
TAP Molson Coors Brewing Company $86.74 32.35 BMO 11-Feb
TEVA Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd (ADR) $63.21 30.65 BMO 11-Feb
TOT Total SA (ADR) $42.84 38.46 BMO 11-Feb
WWAV WhiteWave Foods Co $35.69 41.58 BMO 11-Feb
AAP Advance Auto Parts, Inc. $141.32 44.61 AMC 11-Feb
ALNY Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. $78.82 68.85 AMC 11-Feb
BIDU Baidu Inc (ADR) $172.23 49.57 AMC 11-Feb
CBS CBS Corporation $46.73 37.34 AMC 11-Feb
COLM Columbia Sportswear Company $46.14 59.70 AMC 11-Feb
CYBR Cyberark Software Ltd $46.75 83.41 AMC 11-Feb
ELLI Ellie Mae Inc $62.67 60.29 AMC 11-Feb
LPLA LPL Financial Holdings Inc $36.16 59.17 AMC 11-Feb
STMP Stamps.com Inc. $97.06 75.61 AMC 11-Feb
THS TreeHouse Foods Inc. $68.50 48.92 AMC 11-Feb
TRIP Tripadvisor Inc $71.92 55.95 AMC 11-Feb
VRSN Verisign, Inc. $75.65 38.50 AMC 11-Feb

 

Advice to stimulate your imagination:

 

“Chance favors the Prepared Mind.” – Louis Pasteur

“It is not certain that everything is uncertain.” – Blaise Pascal

 

“I’ve lost tremendous amounts of money in various markets

 and I think that’s something that makes you better at my job, not worse. “ – Jim Cramer

 

Monday January 18:

 

Markets Closed – US Holiday – Martin Luther King Jr Day

 

International Economic:  China Industrial Production – 9:00PM, China Retail Sales – 9:00PM, China GDP – 10:00PM.

 

Earnings: None meeting criteria.

 

 

Tuesday January 19:

 

Economic:  Housing Market Index – 10:00 AM.

 

International Economic:  Germany CPI – 2:00, EMU HICP – 5:00AM.

 

Other:  Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Jeffrey Lacker speech on economic outlook, in Columbia, South Carolina – 3:15 PM.  Last day of trading for VIX January futures and options.

Earnings:

Symbol Company Name Jan 15 Close IV30 B/A
CMA Comerica Incorporated $36.93 41.28 BMO
DAL Delta Air Lines, Inc. $45.34 43.13 BMO
EDU New Oriental Education & Tech Grp $28.37 47.22 BMO
MS Morgan Stanley $27.15 42.82 BMO
MTB M&T Bank Corporation $107.21 34.86 BMO
SCHW Charles Schwab Corp $28.12 43.61 BMO
UNH UnitedHealth Group Inc $110.76 32.50 BMO
CREE Cree, Inc. $24.55 54.56 AMC
IBKR Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. $34.93 44.42 AMC
IBM International Business Machines Corp. $132.91 33.26 AMC
LLTC Linear Technology Corporation $39.53 36.59 AMC
NFLX Netflix, Inc. $107.06 76.51 AMC
SNV Synovus Financial Corp. $29.41 37.37 AMC

 

 

 

Wednesday January 20

 

Economic:  MBA Mortgage Applications – 7:00, Consumer Price Index (CPI) – 8:30, Housing Starts – 8:30, Redbook – 8:55.

 

International Economic:  Germany PPI – 2:00AM.

 

Other:  VIX January futures and options expire

 

Earnings:

Symbol Company Name Jan 15 Close IV30 B/A
AMTD TD Ameritrade Holding Corp. $30.29 38.09 BMO
APH Amphenol Corporation $46.71 35.33 BMO
ASML ASML Holding NV (ADR) $82.90 40.95 BMO
GS Goldman Sachs Group Inc $161.39 34.43 BMO
NTRS Northern Trust Corporation $65.74 33.97 BMO
PRGO Perrigo Company PLC $145.41 33.65 BMO
TEL TE Connectivity Ltd $57.44 33.15 BMO
FFIV F5 Networks, Inc. $94.16 44.51 AMC
TCBI Texas Capital Bancshares Inc $41.00 47.12 AMC
XLNX Xilinx, Inc. $42.41 38.06 AMC

 

 

Thursday January 21:

 

Economic: Weekly Jobless Claims – 8:30, Gallup Good Jobs Rate – 8:30, Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey = 8:30, Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index – 9:45, EIA Natural Gas Report – 10:30, EIA Petroleum Status Report – 11:00.

 

International Economic:

 

Other: European Central Bank Announcement – 10:00AM.

 

Earnings:

Symbol Company Name Jan 15 Close IV30 B/A
ALK Alaska Air Group, Inc. $68.75 40.27 BMO
BBT BB&T Corporation $34.02 33.06 BMO
BK Bank of New York Mellon Corp $37.07 34.09 BMO
CP Canadian Pacific Railway Limited $106.50 43.82 BMO
LUV Southwest Airlines Co $40.47 40.03 BMO
PPG PPG Industries, Inc. $93.57 30.69 BMO
SLB Schlumberger Limited. $64.68 42.82 BMO
TRV Travelers Companies Inc $106.98 24.94 BMO
UAL United Continental Holdings Inc $47.83 50.11 BMO
UNP Union Pacific Corporation $75.42 34.32 BMO
AXP American Express Company $63.29 29.27 AMC
ETFC E*TRADE Financial Corp $25.99 45.50 AMC
HBHC Hancock Holding Company $22.40 39.41 AMC
ISRG Intuitive Surgical, Inc. $555.77 33.25 AMC
MXIM Maxim Integrated Products Inc. $32.31 49.49 AMC
SBUX Starbucks Corporation $58.98 33.45 AMC
SIVB SVB Financial Group $98.53 45.86 AMC
PACW PacWest Bancorp $36.85 46.77  

 

Friday January 22:

 

Economic:  Chicago Fed National Activity Index – 8:30, PMI Manufacturing Index Flash – 9:45, Existing Home Sales – 10:00, Leading Indicators – 10:00, Baker-Hughes Rig Count – 1:00.

 

International Economic:  Germany PMI Composite FLASH, EMU PMI Composite FLASH – 4:00.

 

Earnings:

Symbol Company Name Jan 15 Close IV30 B/A
CFG Citizens Financial Group Inc $22.90 39.46 BMO
GE General Electric Company $29.06 27.39 BMO
KSU Kansas City Southern $68.42 40.71 BMO
SAP SAP SE (ADR) $79.72 29.34 BMO
STI SunTrust Banks, Inc. $38.26 34.58 BMO
SYF Synchrony Financial $28.18 32.40 BMO

 

 

Monday January 25:

 

Economic:  Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey – 10:30.

 

International Economic:  No major announcements.

 

Earnings:

Symbol Company Name Jan 15 Close IV30 B/A
ASH Ashland Inc $98.37 30.80 BMO
DHI D.R. Horton, Inc. $26.92 48.01 BMO
HAL Halliburton Company $31.84 50.23 BMO
KMB Kimberly Clark Corp $127.21 23.06 BMO
MCD McDonald’s Corporation $116.62 28.18 BMO
OA Orbital ATK Inc $87.49 42.03 BMO
PKG

“It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble.

It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.” – Mark Twain

 

January has been very ugly.   US Indices are off to their worst yearly start ever and firmly in correction territory.  The Dow Jones Industrials are on track to suffer the worst month since February 2009.  The S&P 500 is down a bit over 8% since the beginning of the year.  If the last week of 2015 is included, the benchmark index is down 8.8%.  The tech laden NASDAQ 100 is down over 11% in the past three weeks.  The small cap dominated Russell 2000 is down over 11% over the past 2 weeks.  According to Barron’s this is the worst three week span since the three weeks ending October 24, 2008.  Commodities – specifically crude oil – have shown continued weakness. Crude oil ended the week at $28.42, the lowest price since 2003.  The blamed for this sell-off has been placed on a Chinese stock market in freefall, collapsing commodity prices and a plunge in the high yield bond market.

The debate is taking place in financial circles about the potential for a recession in 2016.  I do not know the likelihood of this happening.  I am reining in my market activity.  I am focusing on risk, not reward. I have reduced my trading portfolio by over 50% during the last five trading days.  The current market has been characterized by very large daily price swings.  The strategies I am using are small, designed to cushion me against these significant price moves and able to be easily adjusted or closed.  Be wary and nimble.

Here is an overview of the market behavior last week:

Index 15-Jan Weekly Change % Weekly 2015 YTD Volatility of  Index
Dow Jones Industrials (DJIA) 15988.08 (358.37) -2.19% -8.25% 25.57% (VXD)
S&P 500 (SPX) 1880.29 (41.74) -2.17% -8.01% 27.02% (VIX)
NASDAQ 100 (NDX) 4139.95 (131.17) -3.07% -9.95% 29.13% (VXN)
Russell 2000 (RUT) 1006.83 (38.09) -3.65% -11.21% 29.65% (RVX)
S&P 100 (OEX) 855.58 0.00 0.00% -6.13% 27.75% (VXO)

Data Source: OptionVue7

 

The VIX continues to be at its highest levels since September 2015.  It should The VIX showed minimal gains despite the continued downward move in the market.   The VIX curve ended the week in backwardization for the 8th straight day.  The symbol VIX is a cash price indicator.  All VIX op[tions trades are against a future.  The VIX  January future (VXF6) and associated options end trading on Tuesday January 17.  These options expire on Wednesday January 20.  The exercise / settlement values on the expiration date are not the opening values of the VIX / RVX index, but rather their special opening quote values.    These quotes have their own symbol and are printed sometime after opening—usually a few minutes after, but it can take an hour or two to achieve a settlement.  The VIX settlement value ticker is VRO.

 

Here is an overview of last week for the VIX and related products:

Indexes Ticker 15-Jan 8-Jan Change % Change
CBOE Volatility Index VIX 27.02 27.01 0.01 0.04%
VIX January Future (1/120/2016) VXF6 26.475 25.275 1.200 4.75%
VIX February Future (2/17/2016) VXG6 24.350 23.075 1.275 5.53%
VIX March Future (3/16/2016) VXH6 23.650 22.275 1.375 6.17%
CBOE Short-term Volatility Index VXST 29.60 27.98 1.62 5.79%
CBOE 3 Month Volatility Index VXV 26.88 26.23 0.65 2.48%
CBOE Mid-term Volatility Index (6 month) VXMT 26.19 25.49 0.70 2.75%
VIX of VIX VVIX 116.41 116.46 (0.05) -0.04%
Long VIX ETP’s      
iPath S&P 500  VIX Short Term Futures ETN VXX 26.70 24.83 1.87 7.53%
ProShares VIX Short Term Futures ETF VIXY 17.74 16.49 1.25 7.58%
iPath S&P 500  VIX Mid-Tem Futures ETN VXZ 12.97 12.13 0.84 6.92%
Inverse VIX ETP’s      
Daily Inverse VIX Short Term ETN XIV 18.44 20.45 (2.01) -9.83%
ProShares Short VIX Short Term Future ETF SVXY 26.03 39.87 (13.84) -34.71%

Data Source: OptionVue7

The highlight of the coming week is is the release by China of fourth-quarter gross domestic product, as well as industrial production and retail sales.

This week will be active with earnings announcements picking up the week afterwards.   The earnings highlights are Delta Airlines, eBay, Morgan Stanley, IBM, Bank of America, UnitedHealth, Johnson Controls, Northern Trust, F5 Networks, American Express, Intuitive Surgical Starbucks, Travelers, and General Electric. I did not open any new positions based on earnings strategies this past week.  Having no position is a viable strategy.  I decided to avoid simultaneously opening position which would be effected by two volatility events – a major market sell-off and earnings announcements.

OptionVue7 has the ability to identify stocks 30 days out with a new enhanced Earnings Search feature.  I have done a quick search 14to 28 days forward for candidates for double calendars.  Here are the results of my initial scan for double calendar candidates.  You should further filter any of the stocks with your own risk/reward criteria.

Once again, it is your responsibility to confirm these earnings dates. The date and time of earnings announcements can and do change.

Symbol Company Name Jan 8 Close IV30 B/A DATE
AET Aetna Inc $108.25 36.46 BMO 1-Feb
CAH Cardinal Health Inc $81.78 28.98 BMO 1-Feb
AFL AFLAC Incorporated $57.32 28.96 AMC 1-Feb
GOOG Google  Inc. $714.72 40.36 AMC 1-Feb
GOOGL Alphabet Inc $731.39 39.88 AMC 1-Feb
TSO Tesoro Corporation $96.49 50.70 AMC 1-Feb
AGCO AGCO Corporation $45.12 38.38 BMO 2-Feb
BAX Baxter International Inc $35.31 29.45 BMO 2-Feb
DOW Dow Chemical Co $44.24 41.83 BMO 2-Feb
EMR Emerson Electric Co. $43.83 35.37 BMO 2-Feb
LYB LyondellBasell Industries NV $76.37 43.24 BMO 2-Feb
MNK Mallinckrodt PLC $65.72 68.38 BMO 2-Feb
ST Sensata Technologies Holding N.V. $36.74 43.30 BMO 2-Feb
UPS United Parcel Service, Inc. $91.15 29.27 BMO 2-Feb
BBSI Barrett Business Services, Inc. $38.47 74.44 AMC 2-Feb
CHRW C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. $63.13 31.13 AMC 2-Feb
CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. $454.30 51.98 AMC 2-Feb
DOX Amdocs Limited $53.92 31.43 AMC 2-Feb
EQR Equity Residential $78.57 25.24 AMC 2-Feb
EW Edwards Lifesciences Corp $77.10 36.55 AMC 2-Feb
GILD Gilead Sciences, Inc. $93.02 40.68 AMC 2-Feb
MANH Manhattan Associates, Inc. $56.23 48.46 AMC 2-Feb
MYGN Myriad Genetics, Inc. $42.39 47.54 AMC 2-Feb
XOM Exxon Mobil Corporation $79.12 34.43   2-Feb
ADP Automatic Data Processing $78.99 27.08 BMO 3-Feb
CMCSA Comcast Corporation $55.05 33.37 BMO 3-Feb
CTSH Cognizant Technology Solutions Corp $60.21 38.69 BMO 3-Feb
ETN Eaton Corporation PLC $48.32 35.56 BMO 3-Feb
GSK GlaxoSmithKline plc (ADR) $40.28 28.46 BMO 3-Feb
IACI IAC/InterActiveCorp $55.38 42.46 BMO 3-Feb
IP International Paper Co $36.54 33.02 BMO 3-Feb
NVO Novo Nordisk A/S (ADR) $54.96 34.89 BMO 3-Feb
SEP Spectra Energy Partners, LP $45.72 48.32 BMO 3-Feb
ALL Allstate Corp $58.42 27.85 AMC 3-Feb
BWLD Buffalo Wild Wings $151.22 48.86 AMC 3-Feb
CBOE CBOE Holdings, Inc $63.25 26.22 AMC 3-Feb
CCK Crown Holdings, Inc. $46.02 34.53 AMC 3-Feb
LNC Lincoln National Corporation $41.51 41.13 AMC 3-Feb
MDLZ Mondelez International Inc $41.36 36.32 AMC 3-Feb
MET Metlife Inc $43.50 36.03 AMC 3-Feb
WYNN Wynn Resorts, Limited $51.50 76.73 AMC 3-Feb
YUM Yum! Brands, Inc. $70.01 37.61 AMC 3-Feb
FLT FleetCor Technologies, Inc. $120.02 41.09 DMT 4-Feb
ABC AmerisourceBergen Corp. $93.72 30.03 BMO 4-Feb
CHTR Charter Communications, Inc. $172.31 39.37 BMO 4-Feb
CI CIGNA Corporation $138.72 29.33 BMO 4-Feb
CMI Cummins Inc. $86.68 37.05 BMO 4-Feb
COP ConocoPhillips $41.25 56.16 BMO 4-Feb
DNKN Dunkin Brands Group Inc $38.13 35.69 BMO 4-Feb
EQT EQT Corporation $52.04 52.76 BMO 4-Feb
ETR Entergy Corporation $69.10 25.17 BMO 4-Feb
GWPH GW Pharmaceuticals PLC- ADR $56.58 98.83 BMO 4-Feb
ICE Intercontinental Exchange Inc $250.07 28.94 BMO 4-Feb
KORS Michael Kors Holdings Ltd $36.11 54.76 BMO 4-Feb
LAZ Lazard Ltd $35.02 51.21 BMO 4-Feb
LVLT Level 3 Communications, Inc. $48.36 41.53 BMO 4-Feb
MMP Magellan Midstream Partners, L.P. $66.19 45.81 BMO 4-Feb
OXY Occidental Petroleum Corporation $64.00 40.65 BMO 4-Feb
PRLB Proto Labs Inc $56.87 48.62 BMO 4-Feb
RDS.A Royal Dutch Shell plc (ADR) $41.35 45.26 BMO 4-Feb
RDS.B Royal Dutch Shell Plc CL B $41.07 36.46 BMO 4-Feb
RL Ralph Lauren Corp $101.04 43.17 BMO 4-Feb
WHR Whirlpool Corporation $134.03 42.79 BMO 4-Feb
ATHN athenahealth, Inc $151.74 53.93 AMC 4-Feb
ATVI Activision Blizzard, Inc. $35.40 45.67 AMC 4-Feb
DATA Tableau Software Inc $82.73 70.21 AMC 4-Feb
DECK Deckers Outdoor Corp $42.62 72.90 AMC 4-Feb
DLPH Delphi Automotive PLC $69.42 43.17 AMC 4-Feb
HAIN Hain Celestial Group Inc $36.50 51.43 AMC 4-Feb
HIG Hartford Financial Services Group Inc $40.25 40.09 AMC 4-Feb
KHC Kraft Heinz Co $70.74 27.98 AMC 4-Feb
LNKD LinkedIn Corp $203.21 58.35 AMC 4-Feb
PKI PerkinElmer, Inc. $48.10 41.41 AMC 4-Feb
POST Post Holdings Inc $56.97 59.23 AMC 4-Feb
QRVO Qorvo Inc $39.42 79.80 AMC 4-Feb
TPX Tempur Sealy International Inc $62.02 50.16 AMC 4-Feb
VMC Vulcan Materials Company $85.31 44.10 AMC 4-Feb
AON Aon PLC $87.39 28.34 BMO 5-Feb
CME CME Group Inc $84.70 30.09 BMO 5-Feb
EL Estee Lauder Companies Inc $84.28 32.61 BMO 5-Feb
MCO Moody’s Corporation $88.12 34.68 BMO 5-Feb
TM Toyota Motor Corp (ADR) $116.29 26.91 BMO 5-Feb
TSN Tyson Foods, Inc. $52.91 37.46 BMO 5-Feb
HRS Harris Corporation $84.49 30.52 AMC 5-Feb
GOLD Randgold Resources Ltd. (ADR) $61.03 41.24 BMO 8-Feb
HAS Hasbro, Inc. $70.20 36.49 BMO 8-Feb
SOHU Sohu.com Inc $52.97 51.29 BMO 8-Feb
AGU Agrium Inc. (USA) $86.18 33.51 BMO 9-Feb
CNC Centene Corp $62.58 45.07 BMO 9-Feb
CVS CVS Health Corp $95.51 27.76 BMO 9-Feb
EGRX Eagle Pharmaceuticals Inc $78.67 72.23 BMO 9-Feb
HCP HCP, Inc. $35.96 28.57 BMO 9-Feb
IR Ingersoll-Rand PLC $52.06 32.59 BMO 9-Feb
MLM Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. $123.61 43.47 BMO 9-Feb
RAI Reynolds American, Inc. $47.40 27.98 BMO 9-Feb
REGN Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc $479.08 44.56 BMO 9-Feb
SAVE Spirit Airlines Incorporated $39.00 60.37 BMO 9-Feb
SNY Sanofi SA (ADR) $40.04 31.31 BMO 9-Feb
WYN Wyndham Worldwide Corporation $66.74 35.44 BMO 9-Feb
AKAM Akamai Technologies, Inc. $46.91 54.51 AMC 9-Feb
CERN Cerner Corporation $58.19 35.35 AMC 9-Feb
DIS Walt Disney Co $99.11 34.55 AMC 9-Feb
FIS Fidelity National Information Services $60.30 31.08 AMC 9-Feb
NBIX Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. $47.75 80.04 AMC 9-Feb
OTEX Open Text Corporation (USA) $45.97 39.92 AMC 9-Feb
PNRA Panera Bread Co $192.15 35.73 AMC 9-Feb
SGEN Seattle Genetics, Inc. $37.18 56.16 AMC 9-Feb
TMH TeamHealth Holdings Inc $38.51 56.36 AMC 9-Feb
VIAB Viacom, Inc. $41.43 49.12 AMC 9-Feb
ARMH ARM Holdings plc (ADR) $42.23 41.11 BMO 10-Feb
HOT Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide Inc $61.19 37.02 BMO 10-Feb
HUM Humana Inc $167.23 31.80 BMO 10-Feb
OC Owens Corning $43.00 37.73 BMO 10-Feb
SEE Sealed Air Corp $41.32 36.71 BMO 10-Feb
TWX Time Warner Inc $70.55 36.78 BMO 10-Feb
WEX WEX Inc $74.23 42.97 BMO 10-Feb
EXPE Expedia Inc $107.67 54.03 AMC 10-Feb
NTES NetEase Inc (ADR) $163.52 48.08 AMC 10-Feb
ORLY O’Reilly Automotive Inc $235.99 35.28 AMC 10-Feb
PRU Prudential Financial Inc $72.07 38.53 AMC 10-Feb
PXD Pioneer Natural Resources $115.96 56.45 AMC 10-Feb
TSLA Tesla Motors Inc $206.18 56.86 AMC 10-Feb
AFSI AmTrust Financial Services Inc $56.13 39.49 BMO 11-Feb
AIG American International Group Inc $57.30 34.89 BMO 11-Feb
APA Apache Corporation $37.03 64.67 BMO 11-Feb
BG Bunge Ltd $63.95 36.37 BMO 11-Feb
CAB Cabelas Inc $42.67 65.26 BMO 11-Feb
CCE Coca-Cola Enterprises Inc $46.18 26.40 BMO 11-Feb
DPS Dr Pepper Snapple Group Inc. $90.22 26.43 BMO 11-Feb
GRA W. R. Grace & Co $92.47 31.27 BMO 11-Feb
INCY Incyte Corporation $80.98 70.87 BMO 11-Feb
NLSN Nielsen Holdings PLC $45.70 37.00 BMO 11-Feb
SHPG Shire PLC (ADR) $180.31 39.52 BMO 11-Feb
SNI Scripps Networks Interactive, Inc. $57.10 35.47 BMO 11-Feb
TAP Molson Coors Brewing Company $86.74 32.35 BMO 11-Feb
TEVA Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd (ADR) $63.21 30.65 BMO 11-Feb
TOT Total SA (ADR) $42.84 38.46 BMO 11-Feb
WWAV WhiteWave Foods Co $35.69 41.58 BMO 11-Feb
AAP Advance Auto Parts, Inc. $141.32 44.61 AMC 11-Feb
ALNY Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. $78.82 68.85 AMC 11-Feb
BIDU Baidu Inc (ADR) $172.23 49.57 AMC 11-Feb
CBS CBS Corporation $46.73 37.34 AMC 11-Feb
COLM Columbia Sportswear Company $46.14 59.70 AMC 11-Feb
CYBR Cyberark Software Ltd $46.75 83.41 AMC 11-Feb
ELLI Ellie Mae Inc $62.67 60.29 AMC 11-Feb
LPLA LPL Financial Holdings Inc $36.16 59.17 AMC 11-Feb
STMP Stamps.com Inc. $97.06 75.61 AMC 11-Feb
THS TreeHouse Foods Inc. $68.50 48.92 AMC 11-Feb
TRIP Tripadvisor Inc $71.92 55.95 AMC 11-Feb
VRSN Verisign, Inc. $75.65 38.50 AMC 11-Feb

 

Advice to stimulate your imagination:

 

“Chance favors the Prepared Mind.” – Louis Pasteur

“It is not certain that everything is uncertain.” – Blaise Pascal

 

“I’ve lost tremendous amounts of money in various markets

 and I think that’s something that makes you better at my job, not worse. “ – Jim Cramer

 

Monday January 18:

 

Markets Closed – US Holiday – Martin Luther King Jr Day

 

International Economic:  China Industrial Production – 9:00PM, China Retail Sales – 9:00PM, China GDP – 10:00PM.

 

Earnings: None meeting criteria.

 

 

Tuesday January 19:

 

Economic:  Housing Market Index – 10:00 AM.

 

International Economic:  Germany CPI – 2:00, EMU HICP – 5:00AM.

 

Other:  Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Jeffrey Lacker speech on economic outlook, in Columbia, South Carolina – 3:15 PM.  Last day of trading for VIX January futures and options.

Earnings:

Symbol Company Name Jan 15 Close IV30 B/A
CMA Comerica Incorporated $36.93 41.28 BMO
DAL Delta Air Lines, Inc. $45.34 43.13 BMO
EDU New Oriental Education & Tech Grp $28.37 47.22 BMO
MS Morgan Stanley $27.15 42.82 BMO
MTB M&T Bank Corporation $107.21 34.86 BMO
SCHW Charles Schwab Corp $28.12 43.61 BMO
UNH UnitedHealth Group Inc $110.76 32.50 BMO
CREE Cree, Inc. $24.55 54.56 AMC
IBKR Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. $34.93 44.42 AMC
IBM International Business Machines Corp. $132.91 33.26 AMC
LLTC Linear Technology Corporation $39.53 36.59 AMC
NFLX Netflix, Inc. $107.06 76.51 AMC
SNV Synovus Financial Corp. $29.41 37.37 AMC

 

 

 

Wednesday January 20

 

Economic:  MBA Mortgage Applications – 7:00, Consumer Price Index (CPI) – 8:30, Housing Starts – 8:30, Redbook – 8:55.

 

International Economic:  Germany PPI – 2:00AM.

 

Other:  VIX January futures and options expire

 

Earnings:

Symbol Company Name Jan 15 Close IV30 B/A
AMTD TD Ameritrade Holding Corp. $30.29 38.09 BMO
APH Amphenol Corporation $46.71 35.33 BMO
ASML ASML Holding NV (ADR) $82.90 40.95 BMO
GS Goldman Sachs Group Inc $161.39 34.43 BMO
NTRS Northern Trust Corporation $65.74 33.97 BMO
PRGO Perrigo Company PLC $145.41 33.65 BMO
TEL TE Connectivity Ltd $57.44 33.15 BMO
FFIV F5 Networks, Inc. $94.16 44.51 AMC
TCBI Texas Capital Bancshares Inc $41.00 47.12 AMC
XLNX Xilinx, Inc. $42.41 38.06 AMC

 

 

Thursday January 21:

 

Economic: Weekly Jobless Claims – 8:30, Gallup Good Jobs Rate – 8:30, Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey = 8:30, Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index – 9:45, EIA Natural Gas Report – 10:30, EIA Petroleum Status Report – 11:00.

 

International Economic:

 

Other: European Central Bank Announcement – 10:00AM.

 

Earnings:

Symbol Company Name Jan 15 Close IV30 B/A
ALK Alaska Air Group, Inc. $68.75 40.27 BMO
BBT BB&T Corporation $34.02 33.06 BMO
BK Bank of New York Mellon Corp $37.07 34.09 BMO
CP Canadian Pacific Railway Limited $106.50 43.82 BMO
LUV Southwest Airlines Co $40.47 40.03 BMO
PPG PPG Industries, Inc. $93.57 30.69 BMO
SLB Schlumberger Limited. $64.68 42.82 BMO
TRV Travelers Companies Inc $106.98 24.94 BMO
UAL United Continental Holdings Inc $47.83 50.11 BMO
UNP Union Pacific Corporation $75.42 34.32 BMO
AXP American Express Company $63.29 29.27 AMC
ETFC E*TRADE Financial Corp $25.99 45.50 AMC
HBHC Hancock Holding Company $22.40 39.41 AMC
ISRG Intuitive Surgical, Inc. $555.77 33.25 AMC
MXIM Maxim Integrated Products Inc. $32.31 49.49 AMC
SBUX Starbucks Corporation $58.98 33.45 AMC
SIVB SVB Financial Group $98.53 45.86 AMC
PACW PacWest Bancorp $36.85 46.77  

 

Friday January 22:

 

Economic:  Chicago Fed National Activity Index – 8:30, PMI Manufacturing Index Flash – 9:45, Existing Home Sales – 10:00, Leading Indicators – 10:00, Baker-Hughes Rig Count – 1:00.

 

International Economic:  Germany PMI Composite FLASH, EMU PMI Composite FLASH – 4:00.

 

Earnings:

Symbol Company Name Jan 15 Close IV30 B/A
CFG Citizens Financial Group Inc $22.90 39.46 BMO
GE General Electric Company $29.06 27.39 BMO
KSU Kansas City Southern $68.42 40.71 BMO
SAP SAP SE (ADR) $79.72 29.34 BMO
STI SunTrust Banks, Inc. $38.26 34.58 BMO
SYF Synchrony Financial $28.18 32.40 BMO

 

 

Monday January 25:

 

Economic:  Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey – 10:30.

 

International Economic:  No major announcements.

 

Earnings:

Symbol Company Name Jan 15 Close IV30 B/A
ASH Ashland Inc $98.37 30.80 BMO
DHI D.R. Horton, Inc. $26.92 48.01 BMO
HAL Halliburton Company $31.84 50.23 BMO
KMB Kimberly Clark Corp $127.21 23.06 BMO
MCD McDonald’s Corporation $116.62 28.18 BMO
OA Orbital ATK Inc $87.49 42.03 BMO
PKG Packaging Corp Of America $58.16 39.47 AMC
ZION Zions Bancorporation $22.99 40.55 AMC

 

 

 

 

Packaging Corp Of America $58.16 39.47 AMC
ZION Zions Bancorporation $22.99 40.55 AMC

 

 

 

 

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